The College Football Playoff National Championship is almost here, setting the stage for an epic clash between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Both programs punched their tickets to the title game with dramatic semifinal wins.
Notre Dame secured a thrilling 27-24 victory over Penn State in the Orange Bowl, thanks to a second-half rally capped off by a game-winning field goal as time expired. On the other side, Ohio State leaned on its stout defense and opportunistic playmaking to defeat Texas 28-14 in the Cotton Bowl.
This matchup is a chance for Notre Dame to snap its championship drought, which dates back to 1988, while Ohio State looks to add another title to its storied history. Both teams overcame tough midseason losses—Notre Dame fell to NIU, and Ohio State lost to Michigan—but have played near-flawless football since. With so much at stake, who will take home the title on Monday? Let’s break it down.
Why Ohio State Can Win
Ohio State opened as a 9.5-point favorite, but early money on Notre Dame has shifted the line to -8.5. Even so, the Buckeyes feel like a team of destiny. Since their loss to Michigan, they’ve battled through one of the toughest paths in the new 12-team playoff format, knocking off Tennessee, No. 1 Oregon, and Texas in convincing fashion.
The Buckeyes’ offense, led by quarterback Will Howard, has been electric, especially with offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s shift to a gap-heavy run scheme. This adjustment has allowed Ohio State to dominate time of possession, control the tempo, and exploit defenses that struggle against gap runs—like Notre Dame. Per PFF, the Irish have allowed five yards per carry against similar schemes this season.
Ohio State’s passing attack also presents a major challenge for Notre Dame’s man-heavy secondary. While the Irish rank among the nation’s best in limiting passing yards, they haven’t faced a receiving corps as talented as Ohio State’s. In the quarterfinals, Oregon tried to play man coverage and got torched by star receiver Jeremiah Smith, who racked up 187 yards and two touchdowns. On the other hand, Texas played mostly zone and held Smith to just one reception for three yards. If Notre Dame sticks with a heavy dose of man coverage, it’ll have to be flawless because the Buckeyes have a plethora of talent that can pick apart one-on-one matchups.
Why Notre Dame Can Win
For Notre Dame to pull off the upset, head coach Marcus Freeman will need to get creative. The Irish have relied heavily on their ground game all year, and they’ll need it to shine against Ohio State. Quarterback Riley Leonard is a dual-threat weapon who’s rushed for 60+ yards in nine games, including 80 yards against Georgia in the quarterfinals. Paired with running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, Notre Dame has the tools to slow the game down, chew clock, and keep Ohio State’s offense on the sidelines.
Notre Dame’s defense will also need to win the turnover battle, as they’ve done all season. The Irish rank No. 4 in turnover margin and No. 5 in takeaways per game, with timely turnovers against both Georgia and Penn State sealing their playoff wins. Forcing Will Howard into mistakes will be key to keeping this game within reach.
Finally, Notre Dame must generate explosive plays to have a chance. Riley Leonard connected on multiple deep passes in the semifinal, including a 54-yard touchdown. Replicating that success against Ohio State’s defense will be tough, but it’s a must for the Irish to stay competitive.
Best Bet: Ohio State -8.5
Both teams are peaking at the right time, but Ohio State is simply on another level. Notre Dame’s offense was sluggish in the first half against Penn State, and a slow start on Monday could spell disaster against the Buckeyes. Ohio State has the firepower to jump out to a big lead early and the depth to put the game away by halftime.
If Notre Dame sticks with its man coverage approach, Ohio State’s offense could light up the scoreboard, much like it did against Oregon. While the Irish have had an incredible run, the Buckeyes’ talent, coaching, and momentum make them the clear choice. Lay the points with Ohio State—the most complete team in college football.
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