Aggressive Round Of 32 Upset Picks

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What an unbelievable start to the Tournament! Heading into the weekend, there have already been a slew of crazy upsets that made moneyline bettors some serious cash. Let’s take a look at some viable options for the Round of 32. Note: the following picks are not necessarily backed by the BetQL Model.Subscribe to BetQL to see our model’s best March Madness bets, live sharp data and top trends!

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#8 North Carolina (+195) vs. #1 Baylor

12:10pm EST Saturday

Since mid-January, North Carolina has gone 11-2 SU versus poor foul-drawing teams that have attempted 18 or fewer free throws per game (+12.7 units, 97.3% ROI) and 13-4 SU versus good ball-handling teams that have committed 14 or fewer turnovers per game (+12.3 units, 64.5% ROI). Baylor has attempted an average of 17.5 free throws and has turned the ball over an average of 12.4 times per game, which activates the trends above. In the Round of 64, UNC made Marquette look silly with a 95-63 blowout and while Baylor took care of business against their 16th-seed opponent, the Tar Heels have won seven of their last eight games, with the lone exception being their loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game. At +195, there’s some solid value in taking a shot on the Tar Heels to pull off the upset win. Just ask Duke if Brady Manek, Caleb Love, Armando Bacot and company should be considered a threat!

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#12 New Mexico State (+230) vs. #4 Arkansas

8:40pm EST Saturday

In their Round of 64 upset over UConn, New Mexico State junior guard Teddy Allen dropped 37 points on 10-24 shooting and added six boards, three assists and two steals. As a team, the Aggies went 11-of-17 from three-point range (64.7%) and Allen went 13-for-13 from the free throw line and took every shot for his team at the charity stripe. Those numbers will most likely not be replicated against Arkansas, but the Razorbacks barely got past Vermont (75-71) in their first game. Under coach Chris Jans, New Mexico State has gone 33-7 SU (+28 units, 38.4% ROI) after three consecutive wins and if the Aggies can play an efficient game while Allen delivers another elite performance, they have a great shot to make it to the Sweet 16.

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#9 Memphis (+540) vs. #1 Gonzaga

9:40pm EST Saturday

Memphis absolutely dominated Boise State in their opener and led 38-19 at halftime. Led by a Jalen Duren double-double (10 points, 11 rebounds), a 14-point showing from DeAndre Williams and a 12-point outing by Landers Nolley II, the Tigers held BSU to just 31.5% shooting (17-for-54) while out-rebounding and out-assisting their opponents by wide margins. Meanwhile, Gonzaga got by Georgia State due to 58 second-half points, but only led by two at halftime, 35-33. Sure, Drew Timme (32 points, 13 rebounds) and Chet Holmgren (19 points, 17 rebounds, 5 assists) are the best frontcourt in the nation, but we’re hunting value here. Memphis has won 13 of their last 15 games and the x-factor for them will be Emoni Bates. The five-star recruit and NBA Draft hopeful hit his only shot in three minutes of action against Boise State, returning from a 12-game absence due to a back injury. Assuming that he’s able to log more minutes and make a positive impact off the bench, I’m going to take a shot on the Tigers at +540 to pull off the upset. 

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