English Premier League
Every day there is serious money to be made in the betting market, and we see underdogs win all the time. The challenge is finding the most likely underdogs to win, and picking them correctly can be difficult. Getting plus-money offers great value sometimes, and here we will take a look at some of the teams that offer good value at the current number.
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This one is certainly a long shot, so go light here. Maybe a quarter of a unit, but I think there is a chance that the awful Pistons are able to take this one against the Nets. Brooklyn will once again be without Kevin Durant, at least, according to the injury report. Definitely check that again within the hour of the game starting. The Nets have lost three of their last five games, and they need Durant badly. Last time these two played, Detroit was able to keep it competitive with a 124-121 loss in the Motor City. The Pistons have lost four straight, and they are due for a win.
The line has moved down from 9 to 7.5 in favor of the Pistons. Obviously, this is still a massive number and I'd make a larger bet on the spread, but I think Detroit is worth a sprinkle on the ML at a massive +260. It seems the sharps are on this side, and that means we always have a chance at an outright victory.
Moving over to college basketball now, we have a great matchup here in the Big 10 between the Michigan Wolverines and the No. 1-ranked Purdue Boilermakers. It's been a fantastic season for the Boilermakers so far, sitting at 19-1, but take a look at this line and tell me that something here isn't fishy. An 11-8 Michigan team is just a 4.5-point underdog to the No. 1 team? Seems a little low to me, and that's because this line has been bet down from 5.5 to 4.5 quickly.
Over 60% of bets are on the Boilermakers ML, yet the line is moving toward the Wolverines. That tells me that the money is all funneling to Michigan, and the sharps are clearly all over them here. This is a perfect spot for Purdue to take its second loss of the season, and I want to grab this awesome 2/1 number with them before it's gone. I've been fading Purdue for a while, and it's worked out recently on the spread with Maryland and Michigan State covering. Now, we'll try to get the outright win.
Let's head to the ice for our last underdog pick of the day, where the Buffalo Sabres will be traveling north of the border to take on the Winnipeg Jets. The Sabres are not a great team, but the Jets are one of the biggest frauds in the NHL, in my opinion. They have a 31-17-1 record, and yet, they are getting outshot on average every night 30.0 to 30.9. Most teams with a record like this have a significant advantage in shots on goal compared to shots allowed, but not the Jets. They have been bailed out a ton this year by their outstanding goaltending, which allows just 2.61 goals per game.
The Sabres aren't really much worse than the Jets, despite the record difference. In fact, they get more shots on net per game than the Jets do and have a higher-scoring offense than Winnipeg. At +158, I feel like this is a really good value to take a shot with the Sabres here. I love fading the Jets, and I will continue to do so, as regression is coming at some point.
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