UConn vs. San Diego State National Championship Prediction & Best Bets

2023 Men’s Basketball National Championship Odds: UConn vs. San Diego State

The Connecticut Huskies and San Diego State Aztecs will square off for the NCAA Men’s National Championship on Monday. Unsurprisingly, UConn opened as a six-point favorite while the total opened at 130.5 points. BetQL is your one-stop source for best bets, projections, trends, sharp data, public data and more and if you don’t already have a premium account, this is the perfect time to take advantage of one of our discounted plans!

Scroll down for an outlook on both teams, a prediction for the game and my favorite bets for this game. Note that BetQL’s model may or may not agree with my personal views!

UConn Huskies Championship Game Preview

What the Huskies have done in this NCAA Tournament has been nothing short of amazing. With a 24-point win over Iona, 15-point win over Saint Mary’s, 23-point win over Arkansas, 28-point win over Gonzaga and 13-point win over Miami, this team has been clicking on both ends of the floor and has simply been dominant.

This season, the Huskies are now 16-0 (15-0-1 ATS) against non-conference opponents. All 16 of those wins have been by double digits and they’ve had a 24.7-point margin of victory. That’s obviously troubling for San Diego State, who isn’t a Big East team. What Dan Hurley and his staff have been able to do against non-conference foes has been simply remarkable.

When looking at specific players on this team, it all starts with center Adama Sanogo. Connecticut has gone 20-0 SU when he’s scored 20-plus points this season and he will get fed the ball plenty in this matchup. Sanogo is coming off a 21-point, 10-rebound double-double against Miami and has posted three 20-plus point games and three double-doubles in the NCAA Tournament so far. Jordan Hawkins is one of the best pure shooters in the country, Tristen Newton is a proven playmaker, Andre Jackson Jr. is super athletic and is also a playmaker and this team is full of depth. What sets them apart, though, is that when Sanogo rests or sits due to foul trouble, future NBA center Donovan Clingan comes off the bench to relieve him. At 7’2, he has an uncanny ability to block shots, grab boards and finish at and above the rim. 

Per KenPom, the Huskies rank 1st in the nation overall in efficiency and rank 3rd offensively and 8th defensively. They’ve also played the 24th most difficult schedule in the country and have been among the unluckiest teams in the nation (308th in Luck Rating). In other words, this team has been great all year and when they had some hiccups within their Big East schedule at times, some of those losses were simply unlucky. Overall, this program has been a force and should continue to operate like the juggernaut they are.

San Diego State Championship Game Preview

Down one point with time running out, Lamont Butler’s clutch buzzer-beating shot gave San Diego State a memorable Final 4 victory over Florida Atlantic. That will go down as one of the most clutch shots in NCAA Tournament history.

Defense is the name of the game for the Aztecs and that’s exactly how they’ve been able to get past their opponents in this NCAA Tournament, beating Charleston by six, Furman by 23, Alabama by seven, Creighton by one and now FAU by one. That’s pretty much the exact opposite of UConn’s experience so far. The under has gone 4-1 in SDSU’s games in this Tournament and while their offense ranks 68th in efficiency, per KenPom, they boast the 4th-best defense in the nation. That’s been on full display.

The clear issue for San Diego State is the fact that they don’t have a true go-to scorer. Matt Bradley is the only player on this team to average double figures in the scoring column this year. While he came through with a 21-point performance in the Final 4, the Aztecs only got 24 points combined from the rest of their starters. If Bradley goes cold, points could be very hard to find for this team.

They also haven’t outrebounded any of their last three opponents by more than one. The Huskies have controlled the glass, outrebounding their opponents by nine, eight, 12, nine and 16. This Connecticut team prides itself on team rebounding and it’ll be up to the Aztecs to use their grit, tenacity and physicality on the inside to go after loose balls, box out and make sure that they don’t let the Huskies win that battle by an overwhelming margin.

The Aztecs are going to need to get the Huskies out of their comfort zone and that most likely means slowing the game down a ton, making Connecticut run their half-court offense and not giving them an opportunity to get out on the fast break and grab easy points. 

UConn vs. San Diego State Prediction & Best Bets

The first bet I’m definitely going to recommend is UConn to cover (up to -9.5 if it gets that high). To reiterate what I wrote above, the Huskies are now 16-0 (15-0-1 ATS) against non-conference opponents and all 16 of those wins have been by double digits (with a 24.7-point margin of victory). Connecticut is the superior team, has the star power from multiple players and is also an elite defensive group, just like their opponents, which leads me to my next point. 

I also like the under. Both of these teams are elite on the defensive end of the floor and have defensive-minded head coaches. I don’t expect the Huskies to have a ton of success running out on the fast break against the Aztecs, so that should limit their ability to get “gimme” points. The under has gone 4-1 in SDSU’s games and that’s not a coincidence. Give me the under. 

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Does the model agree? Be sure to consult it because BetQL has hit 63.6% of UConn bets all-time for a total return of $4,026, including 54-34 (61.36%) on Connecticut ATS bets for a total return of $1,506. The model has also hit 61.6% of San Diego State bets all-time for a total return of $1,328! Get 12 free months of BetQL by signing up for a new BetMGM account or pick your favorite premium plan below now in time for the big game!