Check Out Our Favorite 2024 Final Four Picks

March Madness is finally here, and BetQL is diving headfirst into the madness with our Final Four picks for the 2024 NCAA tournament. Our seasoned editorial staff has been hard at work analyzing the matchups, crunching the numbers and breaking down the bracket to bring you our top Final Four picks.

Predicting which teams will emerge victorious and make it to the Final Four is no easy feat, but that's where we shine. From traditional powerhouses to Cinderella stories, we've sifted through the chaos to identify the teams with the best chance of making it to Phoenix.

Whether you're a passionate fan cheering on your alma mater or a savvy bettor looking for an edge, our Final Four picks are backed by expert analysis and in-depth research. Plus, BetQL's college hoops model will be making picks on every single game throughout the tournament to help you pick (and avoid) those bracket busters.

So, get ready to witness the highs, the lows, and the unforgettable moments of March Madness as we unveil our top selections for the Final Four. It's time to buckle up for the thrill ride of the NCAA Tournament – let's do this!

2024 NCAA Tournament Final Four Picks

BetQL Simulations

BetQL simulates every game of the NCAA tournament 10,000 times, and then gives us the percentage chance that a team will make the Final Four, the most likely championship matchup and the most likely champion. It has a track record of crushing this tournament in the past, and this year should be no different. Let's take a look at its best bets:

Final Four: No. 1 UConn, No. 1 Houston, No. 4 Alabama, No. 1 Purdue
Final Matchup: No. 1 UConn vs. No. 1 Houston
Champion: UConn Huskies

The model is giving UConn a 26% chance to win the title, which shouldn't be shocking considering how dominant they have been. You can get them at +360 right now on DraftKings, which is a 22% implied odds, so 4% of value.

It likes the two most obvious teams to meet in the Final, with UConn (42%) and Houston (20%) being the most likely teams in our model simulations. You can get UConn at +200 odds right now to make the final, which is an implied value of 33%, so that is a great 9% of value on that bet. Houston is at +220, implied 31% odds, so we don't see value there.

Alabama is the model's sleeper pick, giving them a 28% chance to make the Final Four (over Arizona's 25%). They are getting +800 odds right now to win the West, implied 11% odds, so there is some MASSIVE value on the Crimson Tide to get there.

Purdue is getting a 29% chance to make the Final Four in the Midwest region (over Tennessee's 27%). You can get them at +165 odds to win that region, implied 38% odds, so we don't see any value in betting them at that number, unfortunately.

Dan Karpuc: No. 1 UConn (+110, FanDuel), No. 2 Arizona (+260, BetMGM), No. 3 Creighton (+500, BetRivers), No. 3 Kentucky (+700, DraftKings)

I have No. 1 Connecticut repeating as national champions in my bracket, and their path to the Final Four is relatively easy. I have them beating No. 16 Stetson, No. 9 Northwestern, No. 5 San Diego State and No. 3 Illinois to advance to the Final Four.

The Huskies finished the regular and conference tournament seasons ranked No. 1 overall in KenPom’s efficiency rankings, including No. 1 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and No. 11 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. In my opinion, there are a bunch of very good college teams this year, but just one great team and that’s the defending champs.

This is a better team than last year’s, too, with Tristen Newton emerging as a go-to superstar talent, transfer Cam Spencer performing at an all-conference level, efficient wing Alex Karaban on the outside, Donovan Clingan as an NBA Draft lottery prospect and freshman (and fellow NBA Draft prospect) Stephon Castle also contributing. On the season (on average), UConn outscored their opponents by 17.0 points (second-best in nation), shot an average of 9.7% better than their opponents (third-best), outrebounded their opponents by 8.4 (10th-best) and out-assisted their opponents by 8.1 (second-best). This is the best all-around team in the country.

There’s a lot of value here grabbing Arizona, one of the best teams in the nation, at +340 odds. I have No. 2 Arizona beating No. 15 Longwood, No. 10 Nevada, No. 6 Clemson and No. 1 North Carolina to advance to the Final Four. The Wildcats finished the season ranked sixth overall in KenPom’s Efficiency rankings and are led by Wooden Award nominee Caleb Love, who is very experienced from his time at UNC. The Wildcats ranked third in the nation in points per game (87.9), second in assists per game (18.6), outscored their opponents by an average of 15.6 (fifth-best) and out-rebounded their opponents by an average of 10.5 (third-best). The Wildcats love to get out on the break and get easy points in transition, which is one of the reasons why I like them to get past UNC; Arizona ranked second in the country in fast-break points with 16.42 per contest!

I love No. 3 Creighton and think they’re going to be the victor of a blown-up region. I have them beating No. 14 Akron, No. 11 Oregon, No. 2 Tennessee and No. 9 TCU to advance to the Final Four. I can’t express how much I love the Bluejays in this region; with Baylor Scheierman (18.4 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 4.0 APG), Trey Alexander (17.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 4.7 APG) and Ryan Kalkbrenner (17.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 3.0 BPG) as a three-headed monster, this is Greg McDermott’s best Creighton team, in my opinion. Creighton is ranked 11th overall in KenPom’s rankings, which is better than all of their opponents in my bracket (except Tennessee). 

I think No. 3 Kentucky has the tools to make a run and win the South. I have them beating No. 14 Oakland, No. 11 North Carolina State, No. 2 Marquette and No. 4 Duke to advance to the Final Four. Talent has never been an issue under John Calipari and this year is no exception. Interestingly, though, this team is led by senior guard Antonio Reeves (20.0 PPG) and senior forward Tre Mitchell (10.6 PPG, 7.0 RPG), who have guided freshmen Rob Dillingham (15.4 PPG in 23.1 MIN), the potential No. 1-overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, Reed Sheppard (12.8 PPG) and D.J. Wagner (10.3 PPG).

UK finished the regular and conference tournament seasons ranked 19th in KenPom’s efficiency rankings, but ranked fifth in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Overall, the Wildcats scored an average of 89.4 points per game this season, second-best in all of Division I, and did so shooting a blistering 41.2% from 3-point range, best in the entire nation. Oh, and they also averaged 6.3 blocks per game, which ranked third in the nation. There are some questions about this team on the defensive end, but that speaks to their athleticism.

Brad Pinkerton: No. 1 UConn (+110, Bet365), No. 1 UNC (+350, FanDuel), No. 3 Kentucky (+700, FanDuel), No. 2 Tennessee (+360, FanDuel)

Let's start from the bottom here with perennial letdowns Tennessee. Though I do not trust Rick Barnes, I trust Purdue even less, and the Midwest region is a complete crap shoot after the No. 2 Vols.

I expect whoever makes it out of the Midwest to run into a Kentucky team that is finally healthy and gaining confidence and momentum. NBA prospect Rob Dillingham will put on a show and lead John Calipari's Wildcats past Marquette, Houston and Tennessee (again) and into the title game. Kentucky is an outstanding value to make the Final 4 at +700 on FanDuel.

On the other side of the bracket, I expect UConn and UNC to take care of business against some very talented but very flawed teams in their respective brackets. I do think there will be some major upsets in those regions, but the Huskies and Heels will be left standing when the dust settles.

However, UConn will continue its dominance, dispatching UNC and then Kentucky to go back-to-back for the first time since Florida in 2006-07.

Lucy Burdge: No. 1 UConn, No. 1 UNC, No. 1 Purdue, No. 1 Houston

I like UConn to win the whole tournament, so they're my lock for the Final Four. Their dominance is undeniable and I absolutely see them going all the way.

I’ve also liked UNC for a while and I see them returning to the Final Four after missing last year's tournament. RJ Davis and Armando Bacot led this team to the title game in 2022, so this is familiar territory for them.

As for Purdue, the path for the Boilermakers to make it to the Final Four is very plausible. I don’t think this Zach Edey-led team is going to be eliminated by a No. 16 seed again this season as they did last year, but I don't see them getting by Houston in the Final Four.

If the 30-4 Cougars continue playing the way they did in the regular season, they can very feasibly make the title game. They have Big 12 Player of the Year Jamal Shead and they can certainly pick it back up after losing by 28 points to Iowa State in the Big 12 final. I have no doubt Houston will dominate through the tournament -- that is, until it meets UConn in the championship.

Kate Constable: No. 1 UConn (+110, FanDuel), No. 2 Arizona (+260, BetMGM), No. 2 Marquette (+550, Caesars), No. 2 Tennessee (+360, FanDuel)

Top to bottom, UConn is the most talented team in the tournament. They have the size, depth and experience to make a run at another national championship. Tristen Newton has elevated his game as the season has gone on, and the duo of Donovan Clingan and Alex Karaban makes up one of the more dangerous frontcourts. As long as they don’t overlook any opponents, the Huskies will have a very favorable path to Phoenix. 

Arizona gets my vote over UNC, although I could make a strong case for the Tar Heels, too. Ultimately, I think the balance of this Wildcats team is what will propel them deep into the tournament. They rank No. 8 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 12 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They play an up-tempo pace and can score from anywhere on the court, thanks to Caleb Love and Oumar Ballo, and are great at defending in transition. 

Marquette making it to the Final Four is contingent on Tyler Kolek’s health. Head coach Shaka Smart said that he plans to play in their opening-round game on Friday against Western Kentucky, but remaining on the floor is the bigger concern. He’s the heart and soul of that team and the Golden Eagles will only go as far as Kolek can take them. If healthy, I’m banking on him taking Marquette to the Final Four.

I’ve said for the past month that I’m not buying into the “fade Rick Barnes in March” narrative, so I have to keep my word. Although after the Vols performance in the SEC tournament, I kind of wish I could change my mind. Despite that performance, I still think this is the most talented team Barnes has had in quite some time.

What makes this squad different from others that have fizzled out in March is that it can actually score. Tennessee is typically a team that plays at an extremely slow pace and is great on the defensive end. This year, however, it’s picked up its pace significantly and has a player in Dalton Knecht that can score at will. Not to mention, it’s still one of the best defensive teams in the country. As long as Barnes doesn’t do Barnes things, the Vols should be in the Final Four.

What is the Final 4 in March Madness?

The Final Four is the penultimate round of the NCAA Division I Men's and Women's Basketball Championships, also known as "March Madness." The Final Four consists of the last four teams remaining in the tournament, with two teams from each of the four regions advancing to this stage.

The Final Four games are typically played in a single-elimination format on the first weekend in April, and are considered some of the most exciting and highly-anticipated games of the college basketball season. The winners of the Final Four games advance to the championship game, which determines the national champion of college basketball.

The Final Four is a major event in college sports, attracting large crowds of fans and media coverage from around the world. In addition to the games themselves, there are many other events and festivities associated with the Final Four, such as the Final Four Fan Fest, concerts, and other activities.

How do Teams Make it to the Final 4 during March Madness?

In college basketball, teams earn their place in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament by winning their regional finals, also known as the Elite Eight. Here's a general overview of how a team qualifies for the Final Four:

1. Selection Sunday: The selection committee, made up of representatives from various conferences, meets to determine the 68 teams that will participate in the tournament. The teams are ranked and divided into four regions, with 16 teams in each region.
2. First Four: The four lowest-ranked teams play in the First Four, which takes place before the first round of the tournament. The two winning teams from the First Four move on to the first round.
3. First and Second Rounds: The first and second rounds are held over the course of the first four days of the tournament. In the first round, the top-ranked team in each region plays the lowest-ranked team, while the second-highest ranked team plays the second-lowest-ranked team, and so on. The winners of the first round games advance to the second round, where they play against another winning team from the first round.
4. Sweet 16: The winners of the second round games move on to the Sweet 16, where they play against another winning team from the tournament. The Sweet 16 is the third round of the tournament and consists of 16 teams, four from each region.
5. Elite Eight: After the Sweet 16, the winning teams play in the regional finals, also known as the Elite Eight. The winners of the Elite Eight games move on to the Final Four, which is the semifinal round of the tournament.
6. National Championship: The two winning teams from the Final Four play in the national championship game to determine the NCAA Division I Men's or Women's Basketball Champion.

To summarize, in order to make it to the Final Four, a college basketball team must win their first two games in the tournament to advance to the Sweet 16, then win two more games to advance to the Elite Eight, and finally win one more game in the Elite Eight to qualify for the Final Four.

What Teams Make the Final Four the Most?

UCLA holds the record for the most appearances in the men's college basketball Final Four, with a total of 18 appearances. The University of Kentucky follows closely with 17 appearances, while the University of North Carolina has made it to the Final Four 20 times. Other teams with multiple appearances in the Final Four include Duke (16), Kansas (15), Louisville (10), Indiana (8), and Ohio State (10), among others.

Need more March Madness Picks?

At BetQL we have everything you need for March Madness and for the NIT. Which ever college basketball tournament you are looking to bet we have best bets waiting for you!

March Madness fans we have everything you need with our college basketball expert picks; you can find out where the experts are putting down their cash for every game and every bet type this month.

Want to hear from our BetQL staff? We have March Madness over under picks, upset picks, prop picks, and college basketball parlays waiting for you every single day of the NCAA Tournament.

Don’t forge that NIT tickets cash just the same as NCAA Tournament do, so check out our 2024 NIT Picks for every single night of tournament.

Win more this March with BetQL!