NCAAB Playbook: Betting Lines, Odds & Picks For Monday, Nov. 14

Holy Cross at Creighton Preview

Out of 363 Division I teams that are featured in KenPom’s efficiency rankings, Holy Cross is ranked 327th. As an alum, it’s (sadly) hard to argue with that assessment and against the data. Creighton, on the other hand, ranks 24th as one of the top teams in the country. For some reason, this is a nationally-televised game on CBS Sports Network, but let’s dig into it.

Holy Cross opened the year with a 75-68 home loss to Siena and then beat Division III Dean College (who?) 85-71 in their second game. Allowing 71 points to a D-3 school is probably a bad sign for this matchup. Outside of fifth-year senior Gerrale Gates (21.5 points, 8.0 rebounds over 37.0 minutes), there is nobody to fear on this Crusaders roster. 

Meanwhile, this might be the best Creighton roster that Greg McDermott has ever had at Creighton. They got past St. Thomas-Minnesota 72-60 in their opener and then worked out the kinks in a 96-61 blowout win over North Dakota in their second game. Ryan Kalkbrenner, Arthur Kaluma, Baylor Scheierman, Ryan Nembhard and Trey Alexander will all have positional advantages in the starting five. There's really not much more to say... on paper, this should be a complete blowout.

My Lean: It hurts to write this, but Creighton ATS. They’re in a completely different tier of college hoops and the Bluejays have a ton of upside this year. They’ll show why in this one.

DePaul at Minnesota Preview

DePaul beat Loyola Maryland 72-66 and then Western Illinois 86-74 in their second game, both of which were at home. Now, they’ll travel to take on Minnesota on Monday night. This will be televised on the Big Ten Network and the Blue Demons figure to rely on forward Javan Johnson (19.0 PPG) and guard Umoja Gibson (18.0 PPG) in this one. DePaul ranks 88th in KenPom’s rankings while Minnesota checks in at 118th. 

The Golden Gophers barely got past Western Michigan (61-60) in their opener before taking care of St. Francis Brooklyn in their second contest (72-54). Keep an eye on 6’11 sophomore forward Dawson Garcia (17.0 points, 7.5 rebounds in 24.0 minutes) and junior point guard Ta’lon Cooper (12.5 points, 8.0 assists in 34.0 minutes). 

My Lean: Under the total. This is going to be a slow-paced game. Minnesota comes in at 355th in KenPom’s Adjusted Tempo rankings while DePaul comes in at 177th. I expect the Gophers to control the pace in front of their home fans.

Butler at Penn State Preview

You can tune in to watch this game on FS1 tonight, as Butler (120th per KenPom) travels to take on Penn State (32nd per KenPom). Butler has only played one game this year and earned a dominant 89-53 win over New Orleans behind a massive 25-point, 11-rebound double-double by senior center Manny Bates. It was Bates’ first career game at Butler after transferring in from North Carolina State, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can build off the awesome start in this one. Guard Chuck Harris also dropped 17 points in the opener for Butler and averaged double-figures in the scoring column in each of the past two seasons. 

If Penn State’s first two games are any indication, this is going to be a dominant offensive group. They took down Winthrop 93-68 in their first contest and then beat Loyola Maryland 90-65 in their second matchup as five Nittany Lions currently average double digit points. After averaging 15.8, 15.1 and 12.9 points per game at Siena, fifth-year senior Jalen Pickett put up 13.3 per contest at PSU last year, to go along with 4.4 assists. Through the first two games this year, he’s averaging 14.0 points and 8.0 dimes, so he will presumably continue to be a major source of points and assists in this one. Penn State has shot 56.41% from the field and hold KenPom’s 346th-ranked Adjusted Tempo rating, so I see a bit of regression coming as far as this offense’s potential is concerned, though.

My Lean: Under the total. After the total soared over in PSU’s first couple of games (against bad teams), I’m going to predict that this Nittany Lions offense will come back to Earth tonight.

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