NCAA Tournament: NCAA Tournament Expert Picks & Predictions for UConn vs. San Diego State
Expert picks for Monday's NCAA title game
Kate Constable - Apr 3, 2023, 6:03pm 
NCAA Tournament Expert Picks & Predictions
March Madness wraps up with the men's college basketball championship game between UConn and San Diego State on Monday. BetQL is your one-stop destination for live NCAAB betting odds, best bets from our model, sharp picks, public bets, line movement data, exclusive articles and much more.
Below, you’ll see a breakdown for tonight’s game from a betting perspective, expert picks from the BetQL Editorial Team, as well as some epic promotions to take advantage of. Scroll down to get started or click on any of the links below to head to a specific section.
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UConn vs. San Diego State Game Predictions
SDSU vs. UConn o132.5 (-110, DraftKings)
UConn has scored at least 70 points in each of its five tournament games and 10 of its last 11 overall. If San Diego State wants to keep this game close, it’s going to have to score quite a bit as well. The Aztecs showed that they can do that when needed against FAU. Matt Bradley finally started to knock down some shots after having a slow start to the tournament, finishing with 21 against FAU. As a team, SDSU shot 50% from deep. I know that SDSU likes to play extremely physical and try and slow the game down, and for the most part it’s been able to do that because of its depth. However, the Huskies have the depth to match, which I think will allow them to be the team that dictates the pace. If that’s the case, this game should have enough scoring to get over the total of 132.5.
UConn ML & TT 70+ points (+150, FanDuel)
This is an amazing odds boost only at FanDuel. These two plays are certainly correlated and we’ll get a plus-money payout with this odds boost.
The Huskies are a perfect 16-0 ATS against non-conference opponents this season, so asking them to cover this spread doesn’t seem too far off. They have the rebounding advantage over SDSU and have the size, physicality and depth to match up well with the Aztecs. UConn has also scored at least 70 points in each NCAA tournament game and in 10 of their last 11 overall.
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Adama Sanogo o8.5 rebounds (+116, FanDuel)
Sanogo’s rebounds prop is sitting at 7.5 at most books, but it’s juiced heavily to the over. FanDuel has it one higher at 8.5, but for plus-money, so I like the value in taking it there. He’s gone over this number in three tournament games and finished with eight boards in the other two. While SDSU’s defense is extremely good, it’s better at defending the perimeter than the interior. The Huskies are the second-best offensive rebounding team in the country, which will give Sanogo the advantage on the glass against the Aztecs, who rank 68th in defensive rebounding. Sanogo has been the most dominant player on UConn’s roster all season and that’s not going to change tonight.
More Expert Picks for UConn-SDSU
Dan Karpuc: The first bet I’m definitely going to recommend is UConn to cover (up to -9.5 if it gets that high). The Huskies are now 16-0 (15-0-1 ATS) against non-conference opponents and all 16 of those wins have been by double digits (with a 24.7-point margin of victory). Connecticut is the superior team, has the star power from multiple players and is also an elite defensive group, just like their opponents, which leads me to my next point.
I also like the under. Both of these teams are elite on the defensive end of the floor and have defensive-minded head coaches. I don’t expect the Huskies to have a ton of success running out on the fast break against the Aztecs, so that should limit their ability to get “gimme” points. The under has gone 4-1 in SDSU’s games and that’s not a coincidence. Give me the under.
Lucy Burdge: UConn -7 (-110, Caesars)
While it would be a great story for San Diego State to take down UConn in this game (or even keep it close), I see UConn dominating and winning this in a blowout. Their momentum seems unstoppable right now so I think they will cover this spread. And I got it at -7 only at Caesars!
Brad Pinkerton: San Diego State ML (+310, BetMGM)
Not a single person on TV or in your group chat is picking the Aztecs to win tonight, which always makes me suspicious. And then there's Drake dropping $250K on UConn to win by 6-10 and another $100K for the Huskies to win by 11+. Everything we've seen in this tourney screams that UConn wins in a blowout here, so let's have some contrarian fun: I'm splitting one unit with half on SDSU +7.5 and the other half on SDSU ML +310 on BetMGM (which nets a $15 bonus bet via their Bet & Get promo for the title game).
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