NCAA Tournament Round Of 32 Best Bets: South Region

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#3 Tennessee vs. #11 Michigan

So are we supposed to fall for Michigan now? Not me, sorry. What stands out to me is the three-point shooting. Michigan is just okay at guarding the three. They don't stink at it, but they aren't that great either. However, they are 3-8 when they allow teams to make 36% or more of their shots from the outside and 0-6 when teams make 48% or more. Tennessee hit 58% from three in the first round and averages 36% per game. That's a bit of a recipe for disaster for the Wolverines.

Tennessee has gone 13-1 over their last 14, with the lone loss to Arkansas coming when the offense couldn’t hit water if they were in a boat. They will want to keep firing from the outside, but they can't do it too much, and that's why I think Colorado State was beaten. Michigan was helped out by Colorado State not taking it to the rim enough when the chances were there. Instead, they could sit at the arc and defend. They also out-rebounded Colorado State by 11, which was massive. I doubt that happens against the Vols, and they will also mix it up a bit against the Wolverines. Tennessee will hit the three when it needs to, and they won't turn the ball over to Michigan to give them extra chances.

My Pick: Tennessee -6

#2 Villanova vs. #7 Ohio State

No one likes Ohio State, and everyone I knew was on Loyola to beat them outright as the 10th seed and advance to play this game. If you told me that the Buckeyes scored 54 points in a game, I would immediately think they lost. However, it was enough to beat the ice-cold Ramblers, who couldn't even make layups for most of the game in an embarrassing effort. No shocking upsets for them this year, and maybe now they will start to cool it on being everyone's darling when March begins. To be fair, I thought they would beat Ohio State too. The Buckeyes just aren't appealing at all. They rank 107th in defensive efficiency according to KenPom, and are an incredibly slow 288th in pace.

Villanova is a different story. They have really been an undervalued team all year. Yes, they have had their struggles at times and lost to some teams that they probably shouldn't have, but this is a veteran team that knows how to get it done in postseason play. They are 9th in adjusted offensive efficiency and ranked 29th in defensive efficiency, so they are great on both ends of the court. They also like to play a slow game as Ohio State does, and that doesn't bode well for OSU. When you let the Wildcats play their style of game, only trouble can come of that. They are much better than the Buckeyes in almost every facet of the game. Nothing I see says give me Ohio State to upset Villanova.

My Pick: Villanova at best number

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