NCAA Tournament Round Of 32 Best Bets: Midwest Region
Who will get to the Sweet 16?
Matthew Horner - Mar 19, 2022, 8:34am EDT
Win an unforgettable trip to Las Vegas to live like a king during college basketball's championship weekend. Enter here (contest ends 11:59 PM EST on 3/23/22).
NCAA Tournament Best Bets | Sharp Picks | Live Odds
#1 Kansas vs. #9 Creighton
Creighton trailed by nine points with just 3:52 left in the second half Thursday night against San Diego State. It appeared they were headed to an early exit from the NCAA Tournament, and then the most predictable thing in the world happened again: San Diego State collapsed. How many times have you heard that one before? Creighton closed the second half on a 9-0 run to send the game to overtime, and then won by three. Hilarious that the Aztecs can keep doing this year after year. Still, Creighton lost center Ryan Kalkbrenner, who is their best player, to a left knee injury with 2:42 left in the second half. He did not return to the action either, so his status is up in the air. Kalkbrenner was Creighton’s second-leading scorer and easily was their most dominant player in the paint. It was already hard enough for the Bluejays to put the ball in the basket, as they rank 147th in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. Now, they're going to have to figure out a way to score and beat the #1 ranked Jayhawks to advance.
Kansas absolutely demolished Texas Southern in the first round, holding them to 19-of-58 from the floor. Was anyone shocked by that? Probably not, but they were still human beings trying to play a basketball game. That's just downright nasty to just completely destroy them in every which way. Kansas is one of the most balanced teams in the country, ranking eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency. Ochai Agbaji is the player to watch, and he has his name in the Wooden Award conversation with his great performance this season. With Kalkbrenner out for Creighton, I would expect center David McCormack to have a big day for the Jayhawks.
Nothing about this game tells me Creighton will keep it close. They are extremely sloppy with the ball, turning it over on 20.7% of their possessions. Now without Kalkbrenner, I don't see them having much of a chance.
My Pick: Kansas -12
#4 Providence vs. #12 Richmond
I really liked Iowa, a team I thought could make it to the Sweet 16 before running into the Buzzsaw that is Kansas. However, Richmond had other ideas. The Spiders held Iowa to 6-of-29 from 3-point land and knocked off Iowa by four. Seeing Iowa struggle from deep was really weird, as they are typically red-hot from beyond the arc. It just looked like the Hawkeyes were tired and they couldn't hit their shots. Richmond wouldn’t be here if Iowa was hitting its shots Thursday afternoon, but again, this is March. The Spiders rank 74th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 109th in defensive efficiency, so basically, they aren't that good. They rank 87th in 2-point shooting, which is actually their highest rated offensive stat. There really isn't much more to say here for Richmond. I'm shocked they won this game, even with how poorly Iowa plays defense. The Spiders play even worse defensively, but Iowa couldn't hit the broad side of a barn.
Providence is another team that has been incredibly lucky to be where they are. They’re 12-2 in close games and it seems like every game they play comes down to the wire. That doesn't make them a bad team, they just get a lot of lucky breaks and capitalize in the clutch. Despite a 26-5 record, KenPom doesn't care much for Providence. They rank 34th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 76th in defensive efficiency, so they are middle of the pack at best. What really kills them is that they are ranked 171st in effective field goal percentage, which is beyond bad. They are good on defense, however, ranking 36th in effective field goal percentage on that side of the court.
To me, the only way Richmond pulls off another Miraculous win is if they can get into a shootout with Providence. Seeing that neither team is very good offensively, I find that unlikely.
My Pick: Providence -3
Does the model agree with these picks? Subscribe to BetQL to see our model’s best March Madness bets, live sharp data and top trends!
