NCAA Tournament Round Of 32 Best Bets: East Region

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#1 Baylor vs. #8 North Carolina

Baylor came out swinging in the NCAA Tournament by throughly dominating poor #16 seed Norfolk St. 85-49. It hasn't been the easiest season for Baylor, but the Bears were great over the second half of February on. I actually think taking the first round loss in the Big 12 tournament to Oklahoma was a smart decision, as it let Baylor get a full week off to recharge their batteries and focus up. They got an easy game to get back into the swing of things, and now they are ready to dominate again. They should be able to run the offense and get moving without any sort of a problem, because the Tar Heels stink defensively. They should be able to get to the glass like they will want to do. Turnovers and mistakes aren’t a problem for Baylor, and they’re amazing at coming up with steals. They had 24 assists and forced 15 turnovers in the first round win over Norfolk. This is a dangerous team, and there is a reason they are ranked #1.

The problem may be that while the Bears have some size, North Carolina is dominant in this department. They managed 46 rebounds in the 95-63 destruction of Marquette. This is the only problem I see Baylor having, it will be a little tougher doing anything on the glass. Baylor will want to run and keep running, but that’s not a problem for the Tar Heels who can run just as much. These are two fast paced teams who love to get after it and score points in a hurry. North Carolina is going to make about 47% of its shots, like they have all year. Baylor has gone 21-0 when they've shot 47% or better from the floor and 6-6 when they haven't.

Baylor just has the all-around better roster here, and a greater range of skill sets.

My Pick: Baylor -5.5

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#4 UCLA vs. #5 Saint Mary's

I took Indiana to beat Saint Mary's last week, so do with that as you will. In fact, I really liked Indiana. The Hoosiers weren’t explosive offensively by any means, but they were great on the defensive side of the ball, tough against the three, and decent on the boards to force one-and-dones. I thought that would matter against a Saint Mary's team that is very slow and doesn't push the pace. Didn't matter one bit, as they killed Indiana 82-53 with their offense, which came out of nowhere. It’s not that the Gaels can’t score, they just don't play with a high tempo as I mentioned above, so I didn't see them scoring a ton. They shot 21 threes, hitting ten of them, and didn't look back. The defense was suffocating and it was just a clear-cut thrashing from start to finish.

UCLA didn't have as easy of a time against lowly Akron. They might have needed to scratch and claw their way to get past them 57-53, but they prevented Akron from hitting the three too much and overcame a horrible shooting night by making 11 free throws in their 13 attempts. That is one thing they are extremely good at, you can count on them from the charity stripe. They also hit eight threes in this game, which really isn't like them. They don't rely on the three very much, so that was a positive.

And it is what is going to hurt Saint Mary's. Both teams play similar styles, but UCLA is better at it. Still, Saint Mary’s can win this. You don’t hold Gonzaga to under 70 points in three games, winning one of them 74-58, without knowing how to make other teams play your style of ball. The problem is that UCLA plays that same style.

My Pick: UCLA -2.5

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