2023 NCAA Tournament: Simulation Model Picks
After simulating every NCAA Tournament game 10,000 times, we're projecting these specific teams to have Final 4 and National Championship value
Dan Karpuc - Mar 24, 2023, 1:05pm EDT
2023 NCAA Tournament Simulation Values
The NCAA Tournament is here and BetQL is your one-stop destination for live NCAAB betting odds, best bets from our model, sharp picks, public bets, line movement data, exclusive articles and more! We simulated every single NCAA Tournament game 10,000 times and identified three crazy value bets that you should take advantage of immediately for the Final Four and beyond! Scroll down to see them now!
2023 NCAA Tournament Simulation Values
The NCAA Tournament is here and BetQL is your one-stop destination for live NCAAB betting odds, best bets from our model, sharp picks, public bets, line movement data, exclusive articles and more! We simulated every single NCAA Tournament game 10,000 times and identified three crazy value bets that you should take advantage of immediately for the Final Four and beyond! Scroll down to see them now!
Back Houston To Win National Championship
After simulating each remaining game 10,000 times, our model is listing Houston as a valuable bet to win the National Championship. At BetMGM, you can get +400 odds on this outcome (20% implied probability), which is valuable because our simulation model is giving the Cougars a 26.71% chance to cut down the nets (+274 implied odds). After getting past Northern Kentucky and Auburn, this Cougars team is very experienced and talented and KenPom’s No. 1 overall team has the best chance to win it all.
To advance, Houston first needs to get past Miami in the Sweet 16. Our model has hit 85% of Houston moneyline bets all-time and has also gone 62-46 (57.4%) on Miami ATS bets for a total return of $1,041. Check out the most valuable bets for that game below.
San Diego State: Best Sleeper On The Board
San Diego State is the best sleeper in the Sweet 16 and you can get +1500 odds (6.25% implied probability) on them to reach the Final Four at DraftKings and +4000 odds (2.44% implied probability) to win the championship at FanDuel. Our model is giving the Aztecs +366 odds to make the Final Four (21.42% implied probability) and +2640 odds to win the title (3.65% implied probability), so there’s a lot of value in betting either of those options. SDSU beat Charleston by six and then dismantled Furman by 23 to get here. San Diego State ranks 5th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and has the talent and grit to make a run.
Before making that run, San Diego State needs to upset Alabama. BetQL has hit 62% of San Diego State bets for a total return of $1,169. The model has also hit 60% of Alabama bets for a total return of $977. See our best bets for that game below.
