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I just wrote "Aggressive Round Of 32 Upset Picks," so I have to go out on a limb here, right? Gonzaga got by Georgia State due to 58 second-half points, but only led by two at halftime, 35-33. Sure, Drew Timme (32 points, 13 rebounds in that game) and Chet Holmgren (19 points, 17 rebounds, five assists) can take over anytime they step on the court, but Memphis center Jalen Duren is a beast with an NBA-ready body that won't make life easy on either of them. Memphis has won 13 of their last 15 games and the X-factor for them will be Emoni Bates. The five-star recruit and NBA Draft hopeful hit his only shot in three minutes of action against Boise State, returning from a 12-game absence due to a back injury. Assuming that he’s able to log more minutes and make a positive impact off the bench, he could be the difference in this game. Memphis absolutely dominated Boise State in their opener (led 38-19 at halftime), and if they get off to a hot start again in this one, the Zags could find themselves in trouble. This is a long shot, but based on what's already happened in the Tournament, I wouldn't be shocked by the upset.
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I have Providence winning it all, so I love them to cover this spread and advance to the Sweet 16. Providence just covered the spread against South Dakota State as the 2.5-point favorite, beating them by nine, and I think they’ll continue their success in covering the spread here; they are 15-9 ATS after a win and 9-5 ATS away from home this season. Plus, Ed Cooley’s postgame interview after beating SDSU convinced me even more that this team is going to go far in this tournament.
General rule of thumb: If UNC is ever getting points in the NCAA tournament, take 'em. The Tar Heels look poised to make a run after blowing out No. 9 Marquette in Round 1, 95-63, the largest margin of victory (32) in an 8-9 seed game in NCAA tournament history. Yes, Baylor looked great against No. 16 Norfolk State, but the absence of Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua will be felt Saturday against UNC's Armando Bacot as Carolina looks for an upset. Not only will the Heels keep this close, I'll even sprinkle a little on their +195 moneyline.
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