Sunday's NCAA Tournament Betting Playbook

The first weekend of the NCAA Tournament concludes Sunday with the last eight spots in the Sweet 16 up for grabs. Since there were no super-crazy upsets on Friday, Sunday will give us most of the matchups that we anticipated, including heavyweight battles between elite programs. Before soaking up one more day of non-stop college basketball, let’s check out the top games on the schedule and some interesting betting trends to know about.

But first, we have to mention that the BetQL college hoops model remains red-hot into the tournament. In the past week, the model has gone 273-179 (60.4%) on all college basketball picks rated ⭐⭐ and higher for a total return of $1,999 on $100 bets! BetQL subscribers can see all of the tournament's best bets with star ratings for every game. Click below to sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!

Odds in this article are subject to change. Check the latest college basketball betting lines here: Latest College Basketball Odds | Latest Over/Under | Expert picks

BEST GAMES

7 Ohio State vs. 2 Villanova (-5.5), O/U 132

It’s hard to imagine an uglier game than the one the Buckeyes won Friday. Ohio State and Loyola didn’t even combine for 100 points. But the Buckeyes found a way to survive and advance. More importantly, Kyle Young and Zed Key returned from their injuries. They are Ohio State’s third and fourth-leading scorers, respectively, not to mention the team’s best rebounders outside of E.J. Liddell. The Buckeyes looked like a different team with those two back in the lineup and have to be looked at as a legitimate threat to advance despite being 5.5-point underdogs. After all, this is the same Ohio State team that has nine wins this season over teams that made the NCAA Tournament, so at full strength, they are a tough out.

BEST BETS BY REGION: EAST | SOUTH | MIDWEST | WEST

Of course, Villanova is favored in this game for a reason. The Wildcats had no problem with Delaware on Friday, giving Jay Wright’s team 11 wins in its last 12 games. Villanova’s depth beyond the six players who do most of the team’s scoring remains a concern for the Wildcats. However, five of those six players hit double digits on Friday. As long as more than one of those six players doesn’t have an off-night, the Wildcats are usually in good shape. On the other hand, during Villanova’s current six-game winning streak, four of the six wins have come by six points or less.

The BetQL model is 45-30 (60%) all-time picking Ohio State O/U bets for a total return of $1,084 on $100 bets, so be sure to check out the model's best bets for this game!

7 Michigan State vs. 2 Duke (-6.5), O/U 144.5

Is Tom Izzo going to be the one to end Coach K’s career? This wouldn’t be the first time that Izzo coaches his Spartans deeper into March than expected. At 23-12, Michigan State has had some low moments and disappointing performances this season. But they managed to survive a test from a tough Davidson team on Friday, giving the Spartans four wins in their last five games. MSU’s only loss during that stretch was a five-point loss against Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament, so the Spartans are in a good position, even as 6.5-point underdogs against Duke.

MORE: WATCH OUT FOR THESE UNDERDOGS

Meanwhile, the Blue Devils have become one of the worst bets in college basketball in March. Going back to their home loss against North Carolina, the Blue Devils are 0-5 ATS in their last five games. Despite being 29-6 overall, Duke has covered just 50% of the time, so they are not always a reliable favorite, especially with two losses in their last five games. It’s possible that the pressure of Coach K’s farewell is getting to the Blue Devils. While talent isn’t an issue, Duke is a young team that’s had limited depth late in the season, which are all problems that Michigan State won’t have to worry about during Sunday’s game.

The BetQL model is 44-32 (58%) all-time picking Duke O/U bets for a total return of $800 on $100 bets, and has a 73% win rate projecting Michigan State overs this season, so be sure to check out the model's best bets for this game!

6 Texas vs. 3 Purdue (-3.5), O/U 134.5

This could end up being one of Sunday’s more intriguing matchups with the Boilermakers opening as 3.5-point favorites. Purdue’s offense certainly looked like it was clicking for most of Friday’s win over Yale. The Boilermakers average nearly 80 points per game on the season, and when they get rolling, there aren’t that many teams that can keep up with them. However, we have seen them vulnerable against good defensive teams this season. Keep in mind that the Boilermakers lost three of their last six games heading into the tournament with two of those three wins coming by five points or less. In fact, Friday’s win over Yale was the first time Purdue covered the spread since Feb. 8, and they’ve now covered just 40% of games this season.

BEST BETS BY REGION: EAST | SOUTH | MIDWEST | WEST

For what it’s worth, Texas has covered just 39% of games this season. Prior to Friday’s win over Virginia Tech, the Longhorns had only covered once in their last eight games. However, Texas is undoubtedly the type of team that can slow Purdue’s potent attack. Despite losing three in a row heading into the Big Dance, Texas has held opponents to 60 points per game on the season and slowed down a Virginia Tech team that looked quite potent last week during the ACC Tournament. The Longhorns also looked great on the offensive end during Friday’s win, as Andrew Jones, Marcus Carr and Timmy Allen all had strong performances. If Texas is able to score points consistently, the Longhorns can be a dangerous team because they are one of the best defensive teams in the tournament.

QUICK TRENDS

5 Houston (-4.5) vs. 4 Illinois, O/U 133.5

Oddsmakers are down on Illinois after that close call with Chattanooga, making the Fighting Illini 4.5-point underdogs against Houston despite being the higher seed. Illinois is also 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games, covering 40.6% during the season, whereas Houston covers more than 65% of the time. However, Illinois has rarely been an underdog this season, adding an interesting twist.

Note that the BetQL model is 42-31 (58%) all-time picking Illinois ATS bets for a total return of $715 on $100 bets, and has a 75% win rate projecting Houston unders this season, so be sure to check out the model's best bets for this game!

11 Iowa State vs. 3 Wisconsin (-3), O/U 125.5

The Cyclones had lost three in a row and seven of 11 heading into the tournament, although they took advantage of a clean slate with a win over LSU in the first round. Meanwhile, the Badgers lost their last two games heading into the tournament and were fortunate to escape with a win over Colgate on Friday. They are 0-3 ATS in their last three games and 2-4 ATS in their last six games, although they are modest three-point favorites against the Cyclones.

11 Notre Dame vs. 3 Texas Tech (-7.5), O/U 133

During the first 10 tournaments of the First Four, five teams have gone from the First Four to the Sweet 16, so Notre Dame doing it wouldn’t be a huge shock, even as 7.5-point underdogs against Texas Tech. Of course, despite going 2-5 ATS in their last seven games, the Red Raiders have covered 60% of their games this season.

Also note that BetQL has an 83% win rate projecting Notre Dame to cover this season, so be sure to check out the model's best bets for this game!

10 Miami vs. 2 Auburn (-7.5), O/U 144.5

The Tigers deserve some credit for taking care of business in the first round. Not only are they 28-5 overall, but Auburn is 21-12 against the spread. However, Friday’s game was just the third time they’ve covered in their last 11 games, failing to reach late-season expectations. At the same time, the Hurricanes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games, going 3-1 straight-up as the underdog during that stretch. 

9 TCU vs. 1 Arizona (-9.5), O/U 143

The Wildcats have the biggest spread to cover on Sunday at 9.5 points. While they failed to cover against No. 16 Wright State, they’ve won 16 of their last 17 games overall. Of those 16 wins, 12 have come by at least 10 points. However, the Horned Frogs have covered seven of their last 10 games. They were also underdogs in all but one of those games and won four games outright as the underdog, so TCU is at least in familiar territory.

BetQL subscribers can see even more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game. Click below to sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!