Friday Evening's NCAA Tournament Betting Playbook
The top trends you need to know before betting on tonight's college hoops slate
Lucy Burdge - Mar 18, 2022, 1:45pm EDTMORE NCAA BETTING PLAYBOOKS: FRIDAY AFTERNOON | SATURDAY (ALL)
March Madness rolls along Friday night with eight more first-round games of the NCAA tournament. Let’s take a look at the most compelling matchups and key betting trends from Friday's evening slate of games.
One major trend to note is that BetQL entered Thursday scorching hot, going 324-106 (75%) on all college basketball moneyline picks in the previous 14 days. That was good for a total return of $2,657 on $100 bets!
Don't try to navigate March Madness without BetQL. BetQL subscribers can see even more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game. Click below to sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!
Odds in this article are subject to change. Check the latest college basketball betting lines here: Latest College Basketball Odds | Latest Over/Under | Expert picks
BEST GAMES
10 Davidson vs. 7 Michigan State (-1), O/U 140.5
Michigan State is the slight, slight favorite over Davidson, which won the Atlantic 10 regular-season title. This game won't be a breeze for either team and it's important to note that Davidson is 24-1 SU when they hit better than 45 percent of 3-pointers and just 3-5 when they do not, so that could be the key for them tonight.
Both teams finished the season strong in terms of covering, so the tight spread is too close to call, but note that these two combined to go 8-2 O/U down the stretch, so take a look at the total tonight. Also, the BetQL model has a 73% win rate projecting Michigan State overs this season and an 82% win rate when projecting a Davidson cover, so be sure to check out our best bets for this game!
There's also a lot riding on this one for Michigan State alum Draymond Green and Davidson alum Steph Curry, as Green said Curry will owe him money and will have to come to a game dressed as the Spartans’ mascot, Sparty, if Davidson loses.
9 TCU vs. 8 Seton Hall (-1), O/U 130
Another tight matchup here, as Seton Hall is the 1-point favorite over TCU. Seton Hall had some big wins over Michigan, Xavier and Texas this season, while TCU took down LSU, Kansas, Texas, Iowa State and Texas Tech. Both finished fifth in their respective conferences, with Seton Hall finishing fifth in the Big East and TCU in the Big 12. So this is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup.
One major trend to note is that TCU closed the season with five straight unders, while Seton Hall hit four straight unders and was just 10-20 O/U on the season, the highest rate of unders among all tournament teams. Points will be at a premium in this one.
QUICK TRENDS
13 Chattanooga vs. 4 Illinois (-8), O/U 135.5
Brad Underwood is 24-6 SU after two straight games forcing opponents to commit 11 or fewer turnovers while coaching Illinois, and 19-6 after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games while coaching Illinois. But Illinois is also 0-7 ATS versus teams who make eight or more 3-pointers per game after 15+ games this season.
15 Cal State-Fullerton vs. 2 Duke (18.5), O/U 146.5
Mike Krzyzewski is 20-6 ATS coming off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite while coaching Duke, and 27-13 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more while coaching Duke.
11 Iowa State vs. 6 LSU (-4), O/U 127.5
Though both teams trended toward the under this season, note that LSU went over some pretty lofty totals in their last four games, while Iowa State went over in four of their last six. Only two of those combined 10 games had a total lower than 127.5.
16 Wright State vs. 1 Arizona (-21.5), O/U 155.5
Arizona went 19-13-2 ATS, while Wright State is 16-18 ATS. These teams have combined to go 15-3 O/U down the stretch, however all but one of the totals in that stretch for both teams was as high as this one.
12 UAB vs. 5 Houston (-8.5), O/U 136
Andy Kennedy is 7-1 SU in March games while coaching UAB, and 10-2 SU after a game with nine or fewer assists while coaching UAB. Could there be an upset here? The BetQL model has a 71% win rate when projecting UAB to cover this season, so be sure to check out our best bets for this game!
14 Colgate vs. 3 Wisconsin (-8), O/U 139.5
Wisconsin is 14-3 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points per game this season. That said, Colgate was second in the nation with a 3-point FG percentage over 40%, so if they get hot from deep, watch out.
MORE NCAA BETTING PLAYBOOKS: FRIDAY AFTERNOON | SATURDAY (ALL)
BetQL subscribers can see even more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game. Click below to sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!
