Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State Final 4 Prediction, Odds & Best Bets

College basketball odds, best bets & trends for Game 1 of the Final Four on Saturday, April 1

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No. 9 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 5 San Diego State Prediction

For just the fourth time in the history of the NCAA Tournament, a No. 1 seed isn’t represented in the Final Four. Instead, the first of the two games this weekend will have a No. 9 seed going up against a No. 5 seed. I can almost guarantee you that there isn’t a single bracket that had Florida Atlantic and San Diego State meeting on this stage. The Aztecs opened as a two-point favorite over the Owls with the total set at 132.5. The lines have already dropped to SDSU 1.5 and the total 131.5. Let’s take a look at each team to see where we might be able to find an edge.

Florida Atlantic Owls Outlook

Florida Atlantic’s road to the Final Four came with some pretty impressive wins. It started with a made layup in the final 2.5 seconds to give the Owls a 66-65 win over Memphis in the opening round. They then knocked off Fairleigh Dickinson in the round of 32 and Tennessee in the Sweet Sixteen.

Their biggest challenge came against Kansas State in the Elite Eight. Florida Atlantic was able to keep pace with the Wildcats by slowing down pretty much everyone on the roster except Markquis Nowell who finished with 30 points. The Owls matched up well with Kansas State because both teams like to play fast and can shoot from outside. Despite shooting under 40% from deep, FAU was able to win this game because of its rebounding. The Owls outrebounded the Wildcats by 22 and had 14 offensive boards.

Putting up those types of numbers is going to be much more difficult against San Diego State on Saturday. The Aztecs have been one of the most physical teams in all of college basketball this season and bullying teams is essentially how they’ve made it this far. However, they present a similar matchup to that of Tennessee and the Owls handled the Vols' physicality as well as anyone. A key to success for FAU is relying on its depth and outside shooting. The Owls play nine deep with no player averaging more than 27 minutes, which will be helpful in keeping bodies fresh against the size and strength of SDSU. It will also help in pushing the pace and forcing the Aztecs to play faster than they’d like. FAU also hasn’t shot up to its potential from deep lately, going just 17-of-50 from three over its last two games. They’re going to need to shoot better if they want to get past SDSU, but they’re certainly capable of doing so. 

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San Diego State Aztecs Outlook

San Diego State’s road to the Final Four might be more impressive than anyone’s because after getting past Charleston and Furman in the first two rounds, they took down the No. 1 overall seed, Alabama, in the Sweet Sixteen. How’d they do that? They forced the Tide into one of the worst shooting nights they've seen in a long time.

The Aztecs' three-point defense is ranked second in the country, according to KenPom, and was the reason Alabama only shot 11.1% from deep in that game. They also held All-America freshman Brandon Miller to just 3-19 shooting overall and 1-10 from three. SDSU’s defense did the same thing to Creighton in the Elite Eight. The Jayhawks shot 11.8% from deep and just 27.6% overall in the second half. The game will be remembered for the foul called on Ryan Nembhard with one second remaining, sending Darrion Trammell to the free-throw line where he made the second of his two shots to win the game. Yet, in reality, SDSU was the more physical team and forced Creighton away from what it wanted to do.

The Aztecs win games because of their defense. They play nine-deep, similar to Florida Atlantic, and have a roster full of grown men. If FAU head coach Dusty May had his players watch clips of rugby games before facing Tennessee, he might want to do the same before Saturday. Offensively, SDSU is likely to go on scoring lulls, which is why if it gets past FAU, it will be because of its ability to out-muscle the Owls and shut down their outside shooting. 

Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State Best Bets

Despite this being the lowest total we’ve seen for either of these teams in the tournament, my favorite play for this game is under 131.5. The under has hit in all four of San Diego State’s tournament games and each of its last 12 games overall, dating back to Feb. 2. The Aztecs have stayed under 131.5 in three of their four games with the only game going over finishing at 135. FAU is 2-2 O/U in its tournament games, but that is more expected because of its quicker style of play. That said, if we look at its matchup against Tennessee, that total was set at 129 points and finished with just 117. I mentioned that SDSU is a similar matchup to what the Vols presented against FAU, which makes me believe this game is going to look similar in terms of scoring. Plus, this game is for a spot in the National Champions, so you better believe we’re going to see things tighten up a bit on that side of the ball. 

In terms of picking a side, I think it's correlated to the total. If you like the under, you probably want to go with SDSU, because that means it's likely going to be the team that controls the pace. If you like the over, FAU is probably the right play for you. That means the Owls were able to speed up the game and rely on their outside shooting. 

My best bet for this game is on SDSU -1.5. The size and physicality of the Aztecs has proven to be too much for even the best offensive teams to handle. Their three-point defense will make it difficult for this FAU team that has already struggled from beyond the arc lately and won’t allow anything easy inside. Depth has been a key factor in the Owls' success, yet SDSU has the depth to match it. San Diego State is also 12-0 ATS versus teams who make eight or more three-point shots per game on the season. It’s been an unbelievable run for both teams, but it ends on Saturday for FAU.  

My Picks: Under 131.5 & SDSU -1.5

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