Saturday presents us with a massive college basketball slate. Scroll down to check out which games I have my eye on and where our BetQL model has found some value. Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of today's best college basketball bets, plus what the model is projecting for this week's NFL, NBA and NHL games! Start your free trial today!
I took Wright State to cover -9.5 as one of my best bets when these two teams met earlier this month and the Raiders won by 32. Green Bay is just so incredibly bad. They're ranked 362 out of 363 on KenPom. Each of its last five losses have come by double digits, while its only two wins on the season were against IUPUI and UMKC. Wright State isn’t one of the top teams in the Horizon League, but it is significantly better than Green Bay in nearly every statistical category. The Raiders rank in the top 100 on KenPom in effective FG%, 2P% and block% and they shot 71% from the field in their last meeting. I don’t anticipate them having that much success shooting the ball again, but they’ll have enough to cover a large number.
My Pick: Wright State -17
Arkansas has struggled this season against offensive-minded teams, which is exactly what Baylor is. The Bears have the second-best offensive efficiency numbers in the country and are great at grabbing offensive boards. According to Haslametrics, Baylor is 22nd in potential points scored off the offensive glass and is the 11th-most effective team at finishing close to the iron. With Trevon Brazile still sidelined, the Razorbacks will be missing the size needed to battle on the boards. Their offense has also dropped off significantly since Brazile and Nick Smith have been out of the lineup. Arkansas is coming off two wins against LSU and Ole Miss, but playing Baylor in Waco is going to be an entirely different challenge.
My Pick: Baylor -6.5
These are two very good defensive teams that should keep scoring low despite TCU's speed on the offensive end. Mississippi State's offense is terrible, but it's able to stay in games because of its defense. The Bulldogs just held Alabama's potent offense to 66 points on 36.8% shooting from the field and 17.1% from deep. While the Horned Frogs will try and speed this game up, Mississippi State is going to try and do the opposite. It ranks 282 in average length of possession, which will slow this game down to a pace that TCU isn't used to. Take the under!
My Pick: Under 132
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