Georgetown got its first conference win in nearly two years last night and we called it! Let's hope both the Hoyas and I can continue winning. Scroll down to check out which games I like and where our BetQL model has found some value.
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Butler’s leading scorer, Manny Bates, has missed the last three games with a knee injury and is questionable for tonight’s game against Providence. The Bulldogs have dropped two of the three games with Bates sidelined and they’re going to struggle if he’s unable to go tonight. However, even if he does play, the Friars should win this game by double digits. They beat Butler on the road by 20 earlier this season with Bates playing. Providence dominated the glass in that game and I don’t see why that would be any different tonight. I also think the Friars' leading scorer, Bryce Hopkins, will have a big game because the Bulldogs held him to a season-low six points last time they met. Providence has been dominant at home this season, so lay the points with the Friars tonight.
My Picks: Providence -10
Tonight’s matchup between Mississippi State and Alabama is going to be quite the mismatch. Mississippi State has one of the worst offenses in college basketball. It ranks 341 in effective field-goal percentage, per KenPom, and has failed to top 60 points in three of its last four games. The Bulldogs are able to somewhat hang in games because of their defense, but I don’t think that’ll be the case tonight. Alabama plays at a much faster pace than Mississippi State and should be able to get out in transition with ease. It is also great on the offensive boards and at getting to the free-throw line. The Bulldogs' 3-point defense, while typically very strong, has allowed opponents to shoot about 40% from deep in the last three games. The Tide will capitalize on that and win this one with ease.
My Pick: Alabama -12
One of the best teams in the MVC, Belmont is riding a six-game win streak and comes into this game playing some of its best basketball. The same can’t be said for Evansville, which is still winless in conference play. It's lost four of its last five games by double figures and I expect that to be a similar situation again tonight. The Purple Aces rank 346th in offense and 304th in defense out of 363 teams, according to KenPom. That’s just straight-up bad. Belmont has the 19th-best effective field-goal percentage and second-best 3-point percentage in the country. If the Bruins can remain hot from deep, this game is going to be a blowout.
My Pick: Belmont -13.5
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