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It's Big East Wednesday here at BetQL! This isn't actually a real thing, but each of the games I like tonight happens to come from the conference. Who knows, maybe if we win them all, we'll make it a recurring theme. Scroll down to check out which games I have my eye on and where our BetQL model has found some value.
One trend to note is that the BetQL Model is on fire, going 212-71 (75%) on all NCAAB moneyline picks in the last seven days for a total return of $1,225 on $100 bets! Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of today's best college basketball bets, plus what the model is projecting for this week's NFL, NBA and NHL games! Start your free trial today!
This number doesn’t feel big enough with how good Creighton has been lately. Every one of its starters is averaging double digits in scoring. Its offense is ranked 16th in KenPom while its defense is ranked 21. The Bluejays are a complete team. The same can’t be said about Georgetown. The matchup between the big men in Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner and Georgetown’s Qudus Wahab favors Kalkbrenner on both sides of the ball. He was also just named to the Defensive Player of the Year watch list, so I’d imagine he’s going to make it pretty difficult for Wahab to get anything going on the offensive end. The Bluejays have clobbered the bottom-feeder teams in the Big East and just beat Xavier by 17. The coaching matchup also heavily favors Greg McDermott over Patrick Ewing, so lay the big number on the road with Creighton.
My pick: Creighton -13
This line opened at Marquette -8.5 and has been bet down to -5.5 at FanDuel. That tells me that the Golden Eagles' leading scorer Kam Jones isn't playing tonight. He left Saturday's game against DePaul with a hip injury and has been listed as questionable for tonight. Whether he plays or not, I like Marquette to cover the spread. Shaka Smart's squad has the best offensive rating in the nation, according to KenPom, and plays extremely well at home. Plus, David Joplin replaced Jones and shot 8-for-11 from 3 in Saturday's win. With so many offensive weapons, Marquette has the talent to overcome its best player being out.
Another reason this line may have moved a bit is that Justin Moore is back for Villanova. Moore has been out all season recovering from an Achilles injury but returned in the Wildcats' last game against Providence, scoring five points. He is arguably the most talented player on the roster when fully healthy, but I think it's a huge ask for a player that has only played one game in 10 months to go on the road and have a big enough game to help his team win in a hostile environment. Take the home team to cover.
My Pick: Marquette -5.5
I think Seton Hall is going to win this game tonight, but it's not going to be because of its offense. The Pirates are a good offensive-rebounding team and good at getting to the free-throw line, but they struggle to put points on the board. Their defense is what wins them games and that will be the case again tonight. Seton Hall is holding opponents to just 63 points on the season and ranks second in the Big East in six different defensive categories. St. John's is a team that loves to play fast and push the pace, but it isn't efficient on the offensive end and turns the ball over a lot. The Red Storm are also the worst team in the conference at getting to the free-throw line and knocking down freebies.
My Pick: Seton Hall at St. John's u143
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