College Basketball Betting Guide: Lines, Trends & Picks For Monday, Nov. 28

College Basketball Betting Lines, Odds & Picks

All Thanksgiving tournaments wrapped up with some wild games yesterday. Alabama beat UNC in 4OT, Purdue easily handled Duke and Michigan State just barely beat Portland. Now, it’s time to turn our attention back to the regular season with a fairly small Monday slate.

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Troy at Arkansas Preview

Troy travels to Arkansa to take on the Razorbacks in a matchup of one-loss teams. Arkansas has played a much more difficult schedule this season, having lost to No. 10 Creighton before bouncing back to beat No. 17 San Diego State in overtime last Wednesday. Outside of these last two games against ranked teams, Eric Musselman's squad has been out Mussel-ing teams (see what I did there). They won their first four games of the season by an average of 21.25 points. That being said, covering the 19-point spread against Troy could be a challenge. 

While Troy isn’t as battle tested as Arkansas, they are a much better three-point shooting team and they know how to put points on the board. In their most recent win over Southern New-Orleans, Troy went 16-for-31 from three (63%) and put up 118 points. And yes, I realize the quality of opponent I’m talking about in SNO, but the Trojans are also ranked 16th in the country in points per game, averaging 86. 

MY PICK: Troy +19. Arkansas should win this game easily, but with Troy having yet to allow an opponent to score more than 78 points, asking the Razorbacks to cover the 19 points seems a little steep.

Pittsburgh at Northwestern Preview

The Northwestern Wildcats enter Monday night’s game against Pitt after suffering their first loss of the season. They lost by one point to No. 13 Auburn in the championship game of last week’s Cancun Challenge. The Wildcats have been impressive on the defensive end this season, holding teams to 51.6 points per game, which is good enough for 6th in the country in scoring defense. Their defense needs to be top-notch each night because of how badly this team struggles offensively. Chris Collins’ team is ranked 300th in scoring offense and is shooting just 38% from the field this season. I expect Northwestern’s defense to be a big factor tonight against a Pitt team that is strong on the offensive glass. 

The Panthers are a team that loves to jack up threes, which is odd since they’re a terrible three-point shooting team. Knocking down shots from deep is going to be even more difficult for them tonight being Northwestern is holding opponents to just 26.3% from beyond the arc. What Pitt does do well is score in the paint. But again, the Wildcats interior defense is pretty strong. 

MY PICK: Northwestern -8 and/or U128. This should be a defensive masterclass by the Wildcats who are back home and seeking a solid win to get back on track after a tough loss against Auburn. Points are also going to come at a premium for the Panthers, so I like the under here as well.

Texas Southern at Kansas Preview

Kansas is coming off of its first loss of the season after getting beat by Tenneess in the Battle for Atlantis. The Jayhawks shot just 32% from the field and 23% from deep in that game, which was one of their worst shooting performances of the season. They’re averaging 74.4 points per game, but only put up 50 against the Vols. That’s all to say that I think we’re going to see a huge bounce-back showing from Kansas tonight against a 1-6 Texas Southern team. 

Kansas has only covered the spread once this season and is 0-2 ATS when playing as a favorite of 23 points or more, so while I still lean towards the Jayhawks covering here, I like the over in this game much more - and our BetQL model agrees. Kansas will have their way offensively and I expect Texas Southern to put up their typical 55-60 points against a Jayhawks defense that is allowing opponents 67 points. 

MY PICK: O139.5. Kansas games are averaging a total of 141.5 and have gone over this number in four of their seven games this season. And again, the BetQL model agrees with us.

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