Adjusted Tempo Provides Early Edge In College Basketball Betting

In today’s NIL age of college basketball betting, discovering an edge is a pleasant development. Here at BetQL, every statistic and metric is scrutinized for that elusive advantage. However, I also spend time diving into outside sources that provide additional perspectives. With this goal in mind, KenPom's Adjusted Tempo offers a unique vantage point into team dynamics.

Delving into the disparity between the top five teams and the bottom five teams in Adjusted Tempo, I will illustrate the impact of pace on O/U markets below using that universally-accessible statistic. As a concept, teams that play fast allow for a higher volume of scoring chances for both them and their opponents while teams that play slower have less of an overall upside, regardless of efficiency. But, this is a great time to take advantage of this edge before sportsbooks adjust!

Unsurprisingly, teams that play at breakneck speeds tend to be involved in high-scoring affairs that eclipse the closing total. UMBC plays at the fastest Adjusted Tempo in the nation, has gone 5-2 to the O/U and their totals have finished an average of 12.1 points over the closing number.

Kennesaw State ranks 2nd-fastest in Adjusted Tempo, has gone 5-1 to the O/U and their totals have finished 12.3 points over the closing number on average. Houston Christian (4-1 O/U, +6.8), George Washington (4-3 O/U, +7.1) and James Madison (6-0 O/U, +21.8) round out the fastest-paced teams in the country. As a role, this Top 5 has gone 24-7 to the O/U!

Meanwhile, teams that play slow tend to be involved in low-scoring contests that stay under the closing total. Virginia plays at the slowest Adjusted Tempo, has gone 2-4 to the O/U and their totals have finished an average of 8.4 points below the closing number. Towson (0-7 O/U, -9.9), Air Force (3-5 O/U, -6.0), North Texas (3-2 O/U, -0.8) and Wagner (2-3 O/U, -3.1) round out the five slowest teams in the nation. Combined, these five have gone 10-21 to the O/U. 

Sportsbooks will adjust to these early team trends, but for now, there are daily edges to take advantage of. 

Luckily for you, our model takes team pace into account through our team values and their relative totals. See our College Basketball Over/Under Picks now!