WNBA Expert Picks for Today's Games

WNBA odds, best bets & betting trends for Wings-Mystics, Sparks-Mercury

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WNBA Expert Picks For Today: June 2

Betting the WNBA has not been kind to us over the last two days. Because of that, I'm going to be a bit more selective in my plays. There are four games tonight and while the Liberty and Aces are must-see TV, I'm not finding a whole lot of value in either of those games. Instead, there are two angles I like in the Sparks-Mercury and Wings-Mystics games. Scroll down to see how I'm playing both contests.

Wings (3-1) at Mystics (2-2)

Washington -7, O/U 164.5, 7 p.m. ET

The Wings have been putting up some big numbers to start the season and as a result, the total has soared over in each of their first four games. Their games are averaging a total of 177, which is significantly higher than the 151 points that the Mystics’ games are averaging. Despite Washington being more of an unders team so far this year, I think the total for this game is too low, so I’ll take over 164.5. 

Dallas leads the league in pace and ranks in the top three in points off of turnovers, second-chance points, fast break points, and points in the paint. In other words, the Wings can score any which way. It also has the league's third-leading scorer, Arike Ogunbowale, averaging 25.3 points, and fifth-leading scorer, Satou Sallaby, with 22.3 points per game.

The Mystics like to play a slower, more methodical style but they shouldn’t have any problem scoring on Dallas’ defense that’s giving up 88.0 points per game. There is also a good chance that Teaira McCowan is going to be out tonight with an injury, which benefits Washington's scoring ability because she's one of the Wings' best defenders. Both teams also find themselves in the top two in free throw percentage which is always great for an over. 

My pick: Over 164.5

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Sparks (1-2) at Mercury (1-2)

Phoenix -3.5, O/U 163.4, 10 p.m. ET

These two teams played each other to open the season with the Sparks taking home the 94-71 victory at home. They both enter tonight's matchup with the same 1-2 record but keep in mind, L.A.'s last two games, which were both losses, came against the Los Vegas Aces who are leading the league with a 28.7 net rating.

The Sparks are great when they can get out in transition and that's exactly what led to their 23-point win over Phoenix to start the season. L.A. ranks second in the league with 9.3 steals per game and is tied for second in points off turnovers with 16.7 per game. In their previous meeting, the Sparks finished with 23 points off of 22 Mercury turnovers and I expect to see a similar story tonight seeing as the Mercury turns the ball over more than any other team, averaging 22 giveaways per game. Not to mention they're dead last in opponents' points off turnovers, giving up 22.0 points per game.

There also isn't a whole lot I like about this Mercury team right now. They rank in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive rating and are dead last in generating second-chance points and points in the paint, which is surprising being they have 6'9" Brittany Griner in the front court. I'll give Phoenix a little bit of a pass to start the year because it has a number of players dealing with injuries so its full lineup has yet to play together. But that isn't changing tonight, so I'll take the Sparks to cover +3.5 on the road and I'm even going to place a small amount on the moneyline. Grab the best price on this over at BetMGM!

My pick: Sparks +3.5, moneyline

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