What To Expect From The Mavericks In 2023-24

I’m going to be nice and simply call last season a disaster for the Dallas Mavericks. Finishing 38-44, the Mavs missed the playoffs, shockingly sat starters down the stretch to raise the white flag before the play-in tournament. As a whole, they consistently underperformed. 

To hammer that last point home, they went an NBA-worst 16-36-2 ATS as a favorite (including 10-23-2 ATS as a home favorite), 10-26-2 ATS after a win. They also went 8-12 SU with “superstar” Kyrie Irving playing after they traded for him mid-season. Head coach Jason Kidd continued to get a pass despite falling short of expectations and couldn’t find a way to get the most from yet another incredible Luka Doncic campaign. 

Now heading into a new year, what can we expect from Dallas: more of the same, an improvement or regression? Scroll down to see my thoughts.

The Kyrie Effect Could Infect This Roster

As a Celtics fan, I have been following Irving’s career very closely and know what he can do to dismantle an entire franchise. He left Cleveland with a sour taste, tried shenanigans in Boston and then successfully ruined Brooklyn on his way out of there. It’s very clear that he doesn’t connect with his teammates on the court and doesn’t get the best out of them, likely a product of his off-court tendencies or issues in the locker room. There’s no doubting his basketball skills - he might have the best handles of all-time. However, there’s plenty of doubting his leadership skills and maturity level if things don’t go his way.

Since both Irving and Doncic need the ball in their hands to thrive, Kidd is going to have to find a way to stagger them. If they’re on the court together, there’s going to be a lot of isolations and stagnent offensive possessions. Doncic led the NBA with 7.1 isolations per game while Irving ranked 8th with 4.8 last season. There’s no doubt that they’ll take on a lot of the offensive usage and burden.

As a result of the isolation approach, the Mavs played at the third-slowest pace, averaged 13.0 isolation plays per game (most in NBA) and were very predictable on that end of the floor. While they still were efficient due to Doncic’s brilliance, that style of play is not sustainable for contenders in today’s NBA. 

Lack Of Offseason Moves

This offseason, Dallas added Grant Williams, Seth Curry and Richaun Holmes while they let Christian Wood walk after Kidd couldn’t figure out how to utilize him. The Mavericks just waived JaVale McGee after signing him to start last season, leaving Dwight Powell to likely start at the five next to Williams, the team’s prized offseason signing. Joining Powell, Williams, Irving and Doncic in the starting five will likely be Tim Hardaway Jr. while Curry, Jaden Hardy, Josh Green, Maxi Kleber and Richaun Holmes come off the bench. Dante Exum, Derrick Jones and rookies Olivier Maxence-Prosper and Derek Lively II will likely factor in, but I’m not sold that this group is strong enough to contend in the West.

I have no clue how Mark Cuban is going to allow Kidd to 1. coach this team again and 2. for Powell to start at center again, but it looks like that’s going to happen - at least to start the season.

At this point, I’ll happily bet under 45.5 regular season wins (-120, DraftKings) and for Dallas to miss the playoffs (+175, DraftKings) again. The bottom of the West got better and I think there are simply way too many question marks on this roster outside of Doncic. Remember, Kyrie is a ticking time bomb and could detonate at any time. It’s only a matter of time before he implodes and sets this franchise back a few years like he’s done to other teams in the past.