Krick: How To Bet The 2021 WNBA Playoffs

The playoffs are here and this is as good a time as any to get into wagering on the WNBA. 

At my old job, I wrote weekly blogs on betting on the WNBA and as you can imagine, there were a shockingly large element of idiots who were like “DURRRRR WOMEN CAN’T PLAY BASKETBALLL DURRRRR.” 

The “I’d rather watch paint dry” lax bros would never be swayed, no matter how many times I’d point out that Kobe Bryant LOVED women’s hoops and said on camera he thought in 20 years a woman would be playing in the NBA, or that players like KD and DeMar DeRozan are such huge fans they follow the WNBA as closely as they do their own league. 

Here’s how dumb they were. 

These Chads would rather LOSE money by not betting on the WNBA (which have among the easiest lines to bet on in all the sports) to prove how idiotically stubborn they are rather than win easy money. 

I went 13-1 on WNBA bets at one point and STILL got chirped.

Don’t be a Chad. 

I ended every one of those blogs by saying variations of “even though you may hate the WNBA, remember: these women can STACK CASH for you all day and night if you bet them right.” 

Because that’s the truth. There is money to be made here, and I’m going to go over some tips for how to do just that.

WNBA Playoff Structure

The WNBA playoffs begin tonight with two games, but before we get to them, let’s look at the unique structure of the playoffs themselves. 

One of the things I LOVE about the WNBA is that the top eight teams REGARDLESS OF CONFERENCE make the playoffs. 

So if one conference is loaded and another is down? They get rewarded. 

Also, all teams are seeded by record, so the top seeds can all come from one conference. Which makes it a LOT more likely the two best teams play for a chip, instead of the best team from each conference. Think of it as if it were the Nets and the Bucks playing in the NBA Finals instead of facing each other in the Eastern Conference semifinals. 

Here are a couple of things to keep in mind when betting the WNBA playoffs.

Home Court Advantage Is Real

First, home court advantage really makes a bigger difference in the WNBA than it does in a lot of other sports. 

It’s interesting why this is. WNBA bench players (star players are stars for a reason) have far less experience playing in hostile environments than their NBA counterparts because they only play 32 games a year, meaning they only play on the road 16 times (vs. 41 for NBA players). So many young players turtle in hostile environments because they just don’t get enough seasoning, and the bench ends up struggling in the playoffs. Keep this in mind when betting.

History Says Bet The Favorites

Another good tip is that there is historically little value in betting long shots. 

In the history of the new model of the WNBA playoffs, there has only been one time that the final matchup wasn’t a #1 vs #2 (and even then, it was #1 vs #3). 

This has to do with the double byes that the #1 and #2 seeds get. That provides a ton of time for scouting and rest. Last year, the Sun were a #7 seed and made it to the semis, but they were really a surging team down the stretch that was getting healthy and had gone to the Finals the previous year. 

Can’t Ignore This WNBA Long Shot Bet

This is why the ONE team I like as a long shot futures bet (although I’d prefer betting game to game versus the futures): the Mercury +900, per BetMGM odds. 

Brittney Griner and Skylar Diggins-Smith have been BALLING all year, MVP level seasons (when playing that is) and if Tuarasi is healthy this team can go deep. IF is the big question. Diana Taurasi has been banged up all year and Griner? Lots of questions surrounding her. 

Another team I like as a long shot future: the Minnesota Lynx +750. 

Since joining the team from the Liberty, guard Layshia Clarendon has solidified the backcourt; they are 16-5 in games Clarendon has played in. When healthy (Clarendon’s missed 11 games this year and the Lynx went 6-5) they could be dangerous. Worth a flyer. 

But in the end, I think the Las Vegas Aces (+225) will finally get one under Bill Lambier. Lots of new faces made this Aces team a lot better than last year. Chelsea Gray for one. She’s a bucket. So I think this is their year to win it all. 

The Storm are at +400, but with Breanna Stewart injured, it’s going to be tough sledding for them moving forward. 

There are two games that start the playoffs off tonight.

Thursday’s WNBA Betting Slate

Dallas visits Chicago in the 8 p.m. EST game. Chicago is a -5 favorite (-200 on the moneyline) but I really like Dallas to cover on the road. They’ve beaten the Sky outright in the past two games and although I don’t like them on the moneyline, I do like the +5 because I think this will be a tight game. 

The over is 167.5 on BetMGM and I lean toward a high-scoring game.

The New York Liberty and Sabrina Ionescu visit the Phoenix Mercury in the 10 p.m. EST game. New York has been a very inconsistent team all year, but they can make threes in bunches when they’re hot. However, they’re limping into the playoffs on a 2-8 cooler, while Phoenix is surging (7-3 overall and 11-5 ATS). 

Phoenix is -10 (-450 on the moneyline) and I like them to cover this because Taurasi has been upgraded to probable and when she’s in the lineup, this team doesn't just win, it covers. 

The total is 165.5 and I think that’s right about the correct line, so no play there.

So remember, these ladies can make you money. And there is nothing more fun than the last minute of a WNBA playoff game when you’re three points from covering or need seven points to hit the over. 

🎧 BetMGM Tonight: WNBA Futures Market

Trysta and Quinton Mayo give their thoughts on if they see value in the WNBA Futures Market. Quinton and Trysta try to sell Ryan Horvat on a team to bet for the WNBA playoffs.