Top 3 NBA Player Props For Wednesday, Feb. 16

Karpuc’s published NBA record: 26-15 (63.4%); scroll down to see today’s picks

Dan Karpuc - Feb 16, 2022, 4:01pm EST

#1. DeMar DeRozan Over 32.5 Points vs. Kings

This is quite simply the best stretch of DeRozan’s career and is the most efficient stretch any player has had in decades. He has scored 35+ points in six straight games and has shot over 50% in all of them. Per ESPN Stats & Info, no player since Wilt Chamberlain has accomplished that feat. You read that correctly and if you weren’t a believer in his game, you should be now.

The All-Star starter has attempted 24 or more field goals in four of those six games and has gotten to the free throw line 11, eight, 10, seven, 16 and eight times, respectively. As you might imagine, DeRozan’s usage has been sky-high in that six-game sample size. In fact, it ranks 3rd in the NBA behind only Joel Embiid and Luka Doncic at a hefty 35.9%. Without Zach LaVine, DeRozan will have the opportunity to put on a show once again in this matchup against Sacramento’s below-average defense. The BetQL Model projects him to post 35 points, six rebounds and eight assists tonight.

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#2 Julius Randle Over 24.5 Points vs. Nets

Remember when Randle was getting slammed by the media for his play this season? Remember when his name came up before the trade deadline? Well, it appears as though he heard all the negativity because he’s been on an absolute tear lately. Over his last six games, Randle has put up 32, 30, 28, 28, 28 and 30 points, stemming directly from an increased intensity on the offensive end. He’s taken double-digit free throws four times in his last six contests and he had four double-digit free throw games in his previous 50 games before that. BetQL is projecting him to put up 26 points, 12 rebounds and six assists against the susceptible Nets frontcourt tonight.

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#3 Seth Curry Over 15.5 Points vs. Knicks

Let’s stick with this Knicks-Nets ESPN primetime game for the final prop. Without Kyrie Irving (local health protocols), Kevin Durant (injury) and Ben Simmons (conditioning/mental health), there’s a strong chance that Curry will be Brooklyn’s top offensive option tonight. In his first game as a Net, he scored 23 points on 10-18 shooting, including 3-8 from three-point range. What makes me like this 15.5 number is the fact that even if Curry has an inefficient shooting night, he should be able to have enough volume to get over it. In his first game with the team, no other player put up more than 12 shots (and he attempted six more), so Brooklyn will be looking his way early and often tonight.