Karpuc: OKC’s Methodical Offseason Moves Make Them Best In The West

After becoming the youngest No. 1 seed in NBA Playoff history, the Oklahoma City Thunder were already going to be considered a title contender in 2024-2025, despite their second-round exit to the eventual Western Conference Champion Dallas Mavericks. 

However, GM Sam Presti and his front office staff made a flurry of offseason decisions that vaulted the organization into frontrunner status, right behind the NBA Champion Boston Celtics. Not only that, but this team is set up for success in the future.

First, Presti traded away Josh Giddey to the Chicago Bulls for All-Defensive Team guard Alex Caruso. Then, he drafted Nikola Topic 12th overall, the best pick-and-roll ball-handler in the 2024 NBA Draft, who will be recovering from an ACL injury. (He is expected to miss all of the upcoming season, but this was a fantastic value on a guy that would have gone higher if he was healthy.) Ajay Mitchell and Dillon Jones were also selected in the Draft and figure to be depth options with developmental upside.

Next up came new deals for important rotational pieces Isaiah Joe (four years, $60 million) and Aaron Wiggins (five years, $47 million) to return and be a part of the team’s future. Finally, former Knicks standout and prized unrestricted free agent Isaiah Hartenstein signed to bolster the interior with a three year, $87 million contract.

Oh, and they did all of this without giving up a single future first-round draft pick, including up to the five first-round picks they could have in next year’s Draft.

The current makeup of the team’s depth chart looks something like this:

PG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell

SG: Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe

SF: Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins, Dillon Jones

PF: Jalen Williams, Kenrich Williams

C: Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jaylin Williams

Not only does this team have a ton of versatility and depth, but don’t forget about the superstar that’ll be running the show. 2023-2024 MVP runner-up SGA is listed at +650 to win next season’s honor at BetMGM and is the sportsbook’s biggest liability, attracting 18.5% of the tickets and 30.8% of the handle in that market after averaging 30.1 points, 5.5 rebounds and 6.2 assists in the regular season before 30.2 points, 7.2 rebounds and 6.4 assists in the playoffs.

The Thunder ranked 3rd in Offensive Rating (118.3), 4th in Defensive Rating (111.0) and 2nd in Net Rating (+7.3) in the 2023-2024 regular season and owned the 2nd-best Defensive Rating and 2nd-best Net Rating in the playoffs before they got eliminated. These moves above should make a great team even more dominant.

Reigning Coach of the Year Mark Daigneault will now be able to deploy efficient lineups regardless of opponent. We saw issues with Giddey against the Mavericks which led to his benching. Now, Daigneault will be able to put Caruso and Dort on Luka Doncic for the majority of the game, which is about as good of a tandem as you can think of in the entire NBA. Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns won’t be a problem to match up against when OKC plays Minnesota with Hartenstein now in the mix. If opposing teams go small, the Thunder can match, and the same can now be said if opposing teams go big. The situational versatility of this roster is now the best in the entire NBA, in my opinion. 

OKC’s title odds moved from +850 to +800 at BetMGM, where they’re now tied with the Philadelphia 76ers, who just added Paul George and extended Tyrese Maxey. The Celtics (+300) and Denver Nuggets (+750) are the only teams with better odds, per the sportsbook.

As it stands right now, there’s no better bet on the NBA futures board than the Thunder to win the Western Conference at +380 over at BetMGM.