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On Monday night, Orlando erased a 21-point deficit and came back to beat the Sixers by 10 points, 129-119. Not only did this young Magic team show a lot of resilience, but most importantly, it won me my upset pick of the day with +360 odds. I was high on the depth of Orlando on Monday and I’m also high on it again today because after a disastrous first quarter in which they were outscored 30-17, Orlando was able to find the right combinations on the court to adapt to the flow of the game. Philadelphia is reliant on Joel Embiid’s scoring and there was a lot of stagnation on their offense as a whole on Monday night, especially after the Magic began to double-team him in the post. Both teams will take lessons from that outcome into this one, but as the Magic showed against the Celtics (whom they've beaten outright three times in four meetings), they’re a very tough team to match up against.
The No. 2 team in the country is just a five-point favorite at unranked Florida? Weird, right? And that line has shifted to the Gators after opening at 6, so early money is coming in on Florida on the spread, at least. Also, a whopping 91% of the early moneyline tickets are on Tennessee (as of noon ET), so imagine how many "can't-miss" parlays UT will be in tonight as a gimme leg.
But I think this could be a classic trap game for Tennessee, coming off of a huge home win against then-No. 10 Texas and now travelling to Florida while possibly looking ahead to another top-25 showdown with Auburn this weekend. Regardless, I'll be watching where money is coming in on the moneyline today, but Florida is definitely on upset alert tonight.
Something feels a little fishy about the line in this game, which makes me believe Toronto could pull off the upset tonight against the Jazz. The Raptors are playing their fifth game of a seven-game West Coast road trip. This will be their fourth game in six nights and their fifth game in eight nights, all on the road. The Jazz, meanwhile, haven’t played since Jan. 28, when they beat the Mavericks at home. Shouldn’t Utah be a bigger ATS favorite with the rest and schedule advantage it has over Toronto? I think so, which is why I like the Raptors to pull the upset tonight.
Providence is on a three-game winning streak and has won 12 of the last 14 while Xavier is coming off a 17-point loss at Creighton, so Providence has more momentum heading into this game. Plus, a BetQL trend in favor of Providence on the moneyline here is that Ed Cooley is 77-36 after two straight games giving up nine or fewer offensive rebounds while coaching Providence. So I think Providence has a great chance to upset Xavier and get the win here tonight.
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