NBA Playbook For Wednesday, October 19

The 2022-2023 NBA regular season is finally here and BetQL is your source for best bets, sharp picks, live public data, player prop values, final score projections and so much more for Wednesday's best games! Scroll down to take a look at current odds and best bets from our model!

NETS VS. PELICANS

The Nets have a consensus 50.5 win total, but will be shorthanded for this season-opener, as Joe Harris, Seth Curry and TJ Warren will all be out due to their respective injuries. Brooklyn will likely start Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, Ben Simmons, Nic Claxton and Royce O’Neal in this one and will have a short bench with Patty Mills, Cam Thomas, Kessler Edwards and Markieff Morris most likely seeing the most time off the bench. Under Steve Nash, the Nets have gone just 22-44 ATS as a home favorite, so that’s certainly a trend to keep in mind as this team has a lot to prove. While I’m taking a “wait and see” approach on Brooklyn as a team, the offensive usage is going to be focused heavily on KD and Kyrie in this one, so I’m going to bet over both of their point totals, especially with Simmons’ proficiency as a distributor.

The Pelicans have a consensus 45 win total and have a very deep team. CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Herbert Jones, Zion Williamson and Jonas Valanciunas will likely start while Jose Alvarado, Devonte’ Graham, Trey Murphy III, Larry Nance Jr., Willy Hernangomez and Dyson Daniels will most likely get minutes with the second unit. New Orleans at +400 to win the Southwest Division is one of my favorite values available in the futures markets right now and I’m very high on this team as a whole. Further, I can see their second unit having a gigantic impact on the outcome of this game and can easily see them pulling off the upset.

Take a look at our best bets above and see if our model favors Brooklyn or New Orleans.

GRIZZLIES VS. KNICKS

The Grizzlies showed the world what they were made of last season and enter the new year with a 49 win total. Under coach Taylor Jenkins, Memphis has gone 138-104 ATS and 68-36 ATS as a favorite. Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, Santi Aldama and Steven Adams will likely start while Tyus Jones, John Konchar, Ziaire Williams, Brandon Clarke and Xavier Tillman will make up a talented and productive second unit. This was one of the most cohesive teams in the entire NBA last year and Jenkins prioritizes a team-first attitude, which has made betting on Grizzlies player props slightly aggravating.

The Knicks have a 38.5 consensus win total, but enter the new year with renewed expectations. Prized free agent signing Jalen Brunson will highlight a starting five that consists of Evan Fournier, RJ Barrett, Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson. Derrick Rose, Immanuel Quickley, Isaiah Hartenstein and Cam Reddish will see minutes off the bench while Quintin Grimes and Obi Toppin are also questionable. New York to make the playoffs is at +200 at various books right now, which is one of the best values on the board in my opinion.

Overall, I view these teams as evenly-matched, so a side doesn’t exactly jump out to me… unless our model is pointing something out as a clear value.

SUNS VS. MAVERICKS

After a disappointing end to their 2021-2022 season, the Suns will return a similar starting five: Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson and Deandre Ayton. Jae Crowder will be out as the team looks for a trade partner for him and coach Monty Williams will bring Cameron Payne, Landy Shamet, Torrey Craig, Dario Saric, Bismack Biyombo off the bench. Phoenix has a 52.5 consensus win total and has gone 33-12 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less under Williams. Overall, I don’t love the Suns’ chances in a packed Western Conference, especially if they don’t make any mid-season improvements. 

Luka Doncic is the betting favorite to win the MVP and Dallas did a nice job getting him some frontcourt reinforcements in the offseason: Christian Wood and JaVale McGee. Head coach Jason Kidd has stated that McGee will start and Wood will come off the bench, which should allow him to eat in the second unit. Starting alongside Doncic and McGee will likely be Tim Hardaway Jr., Reggie Bullock and Dorian Finney-Smith while Spencer Dinwiddie, Josh Green, Maxi Kleber, Frank Ntilikina and Dwight Powell will likely see minutes. Davis Bertans will be out for this game.

Dallas has a 48.5 consensus win total and I’d consider backing them in this matchup after doing a little line shopping. See if BetQL is on them!

HEAT VS. BULLS

Erik Spoelstra has gone 273-230 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as Miami’s coach and will return a similar lineup as last year’s team. Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, Caleb Martin, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo should be in the starting five. Meanwhile, Gabe Vincent, Victor Oladipo (questionable), Duncan Robinson, Max Strus, Dewayne Dedmon and Nikola Jovic should get time off the pine. Adebayo is expected to take a leap forward and enters the year with the second-shortest odds to win Defensive Player of the Year. Overall, Miami has a consensus win total of 49 games and should be one of the best teams in the East once again.

The Bulls will also return a similar starting five: Ayo Dosunmu, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Patrick Williams and Nikola Vucevic. Billy Donovan will turn to Alex Caruso, Javonte Green, Andre Drummond, Goran Dragic and Coby White in his second unit. Last year, Chicago had the worst bench production in the NBA, so it remains to be seen if the additions of Drummond and Dragic will make a difference in that regard. This Chicago squad has a consensus win total of 42 games.

My inclination is to back the Heat to win and cover, as they're the more complete team. Find out if the model is aligned!