Karpuc: Why The Nuggets Are Going To Sweep The Heat

Despite the fact that they secured the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference after going 53-29 in the regular season, the Denver Nuggets were overlooked by many as legitimate title contenders, including myself. Even though Nikola Jokic is arguably the most dominant player in the NBA. Even though Jamal Murray has stepped up historically in the playoffs. Even though this team has gelled all season long. There were just too many other sexy options.

They responded by beating the Minnesota Timberwolves in five games, the Phoenix Suns in six games and then the Los Angeles Lakers in a sweep to punch their ticket to the NBA Finals. And they’ve done so by staying true to themselves, adhering to their offensive principles and clamping down defensively. In the upcoming Finals, we should see more of the same. Keep reading for some important insight before you bet this NBA Finals matchup against the Miami Heat. Note: all statistics found below were found on NBA.com.

Denver’s Well-Oiled Offensive Machine

It’s tough to put into words how dominant Nikola Jokic has been in these Playoffs. Averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists, Joker has spearheaded a Nuggets offense that has averaged a 119.7 Offensive Rating. Not only does that rank 1st among all playoff teams, but it also ranks above their regular-season mark of 116.8, which ranked 4th in the NBA. In other words, this has been an ultra-efficient version of an already-elite offense and it’s been because of Jokic’s leadership. As a team, Denver has averaged 2.27 assists per turnover, which is even better than their regular-season, NBA-best mark of 1.99. 

The Nuggets have shot 49% in these playoffs (50.4% in regular season), including 38.6% from three (37.9% regular season) and Jamal Murray has been a huge part of that production. Averaging 27.7 points, 5.5 rebounds and 6.1 assists, the guard has been an absolute star and has stepped up to be the second option (and at times the 1a option) alongside Jokic. This team has taken care of the ball under pressure, too. Their 11.4 average turnovers in these playoffs ranks below their regular season average of 14.5.

This offense runs through Jokic and it’s extremely efficient while also being predictable, which might be even more impressive. Denver has taken an average of 22.4 seconds per possession (up from 21.1 in the regular season) and thrives in the halfcourt offense, averaging 16.5 elbow touches per contest (slightly down from 17.6 in the regular season which was the most in the NBA) and 12.3 post ups per game (up from 11.8 in the regular season which was also the most in the league). They have also averaged 7.8 handoffs per game (up from 5.9 in the regular season), 9.7 cuts to the basket (just below their second-highest mark of 10.1 in the regular season) and just 34.5 drives to the basket. That drives to the basket number ranks dead last among all playoff teams and even lower than their NBA-low mark of 36 per contest in the regular season.

Due to Jokic’s ability to run things, this type of offense stands out as something completely different than traditional NBA offenses. When teams collapse on the big man, he easily finds teammates for high-percentage shots cutting to the basket or on the perimeter. Denver is shooting 38.9% on catch-and-shoot threes in these playoffs (38.5% in the regular season) and has averaged 23.9 paint touches per contest (slightly down from their regular-season mark of 26.3 which was the second-highest in the NBA). Their 1.024 points per paint touch in the regular season was tops in the league and they’ve put up .939 in the postseason, which is still elite.

It’s pretty wild to think that this Nuggets team has averaged just 13.7 points per game off turnovers (dead-last among playoff teams, down from 15.9 in the regular season which ranked 22nd) and 12.7 second chance points (11th among playoff teams, down from 13.0 in the regular season which ranked 20th). Instead, Denver picks and chooses when to run out on the break as their 16.6 fastbreak points (2nd-best in playoffs, slightly above of their 16.2 in the regular season which ranked 5th), but dominates the interior with 51.5 points in the paint per contest (best among any playoff team, slightly below their 55.0 number in the regular season) and have converted 64.4% of their two-point attempts, identical to what they did in the regular season.

While Jokic and Murray will lead the way offensively, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon will be expected to hit their open looks while Bruce Brown and Jeff Green off the bench will also be expected to do the same. If Miami uses the zone that they installed against the Boston Celtics, they’re going to get picked apart by Denver.

To hammer this point home, the Nuggets have moved at the slowest average speed (3.89 miles per hour) in these playoffs, down from 4.02 in the regular season, which was the third-slowest average miles per hour. Their 9.2 average miles traveled on offense ranks right at their 9.2 averaged during the regular season while their 7.63 average miles traveled on defense is below their 8.0 miles traveled during the regular season on that end of the floor. I’ll get to that next.

Denver’s Defensive Ascension

As great as the Nuggets have been offensively, their improvements on the defensive end have been admirable. In these Playoffs, they have an average Defensive Rating of 111.7, better than their regular season mark of 113.5 (15th), which has contributed to an elite 8.0 Net Rating. No other playoff team had a Net Rating above 4.5 and Denver had a 3.5 Net Rating in the regular season. 

We often hear that great offense leads to great defense, but with this team, I’d argue that the opposite is true. Denver’s ability to protect the ball on offense has allowed them to get set defensively. Their opponents have averaged just 13.5 points off turnovers, down from 17.4 in the regular season. That 13.5 mark is the best out of any playoff team. Nuggets opponents have also averaged just 10.2 second chance points per contest (2nd-lowest among playoff teams), down from 13.4 in the regular season (14th). That’s due to elite team rebounding, as proven by Denver’s 53.4% rebound percentage, which ranks 1st among playoff teams and is an improvement over their 51.4% rebounding percentage in the regular season (4th).

Due to the fact that the Nuggets typically control the glass, their opponents shooting 47.2% overall hasn’t mattered in this postseason and they’ve clamped down on opposing three-point shooters, allowing them to shoot just 34.2%, nearly identical to their 34.4% mark which ranked 3rd in the regular season. 

What’s clear is that Michael Malone has found the right defensive recipes and rotations as both Brown and Green can defend multiple positions coming off the bench. When Jokic rests, Gordon, Porter Jr. or Green will be expected to defend a taller player, but overall, Denver will have the ability to switch defensively and have been playing with desperation and purpose on that end of the floor.

“On the defensive end… I think… I was watching a hockey game yesterday,” Murray said after sweeping the Lakers, per NBA on Twitter.  “They said one team is playing, it was the green team and the white team couldn’t tell you, they said one team was playing with a certain intent. A certain intensity, meaning whether they turn it over or not, whether they missed a shot or not they play with a certain aggression and awareness. And the other team was just kind of going through the motions. You could visibly see it. I think our defense has been being played with intent. I think we’ve all been on a string, when we’ve needed a stop we all lock in even if we don’t get it, we lock in and try and get it. Possession by possession I think that’s crucial at this stage.”

Sweep Incoming In The NBA Finals

As a very heartbroken Celtics fan, I have to admit that I was going to tout the Nuggets against Boston and I’m certainly going to do so against the Heat. Denver has won six consecutive games against the Heat and nine of their last 10. Jokic posted three triple-doubles in his last five meetings against Miami. Sure, Jimmy Butler “has that dog in him” and guys like Caleb Martin really stepped up in the Eastern Conference Finals, but I don’t think they’re going to be a match for this Nuggets squad. Give me Joker and Denver to sweep Miami.