Expert Picks Each Round 1 NBA Playoff Series

NBA Playoffs: Expert Picks & Predictions for Round 1

The NBA playoffs are here! Not only are we able to bet on individual games, but there is also plenty of value in betting on a series, even after it starts. From wagers on the series spread to the correct number of games played, the payout for these types of bets can be considerably higher than single-game bets. Scroll down to check out which series bets I'm making.

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Nets vs. Sixers Series Prediction

I don’t think the Nets stand much of a chance in this series against the 76ers and with Philadelphia sitting at -900 to win the series, the books agree.

Joel Embiid just earned the NBA scoring title for the second straight year and was the odds-on leader in the MVP race when the regular season ended. Philly won each of the four meetings with the Nets this season, but only two of those games took place after Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving were traded and the final meeting came on Sunday when both teams rested their stars. Mikal Bridges has shown that he can be a massive scoring threat since being traded to Brooklyn and Cam Johnson and Dorian Finney-Smith can both knock down shots from deep. Overall, the Sixers are the much more talented team.

Slowing down Joel Embiid is going to be a tall task for Nic Claxton and asking Bridges to defend James Harden or Tyrese Maxey while also providing the majority of Brooklyn’s offense isn’t going to be easy. What makes the 76ers more dangerous this year is that they're coming into the playoffs completely healthy. Injuries have derailed their hopes of making it to the finals in each of the two previous seasons, but that shouldn’t be the case in this first series.

My only concern for Philly is the weight of the expectations that they’re currently carrying. The Nets are playing with nothing to lose, and while I don’t think that will translate to winning this series, I do think they can steal one game. Instead of taking the series to finish in five games, take the correct series score with the Sixers winning 4-1 for a slightly higher payout on DraftKings with minimal extra risk.

My Pick: Sixers win 4-1 vs. Nets (+210, DraftKings)

Hawks vs. Celtics Series Prediction

The Hawks surprised a lot of people by getting past the Heat in the play-in game and now find themselves in a first-round series with the Boston Celtics, who are massive favorites at -1000 to win the series.

The Hawks are coming off of their most complete game of the season against Miami. Atlanta dismantled Miami's defense and Trae Young facilitated beautifully, finding his open teammates early in the game and pouring in big shots down the stretch. That's the best I've seen the Hawks play all season, which is why I'm not confident we're going to get that same version consistently against Boston.

The Celtics have the superior roster, ranking first in net rating and second in both offensive and defensive rating on the season. Meanwhile, the Hawks are 19th in net, seventh in offensive rating, and 22nd in defensive rating. Boston's ability to score efficiently from all areas of the floor is going to overwhelm Atlanta's poor defense. The Celtics also shoot a ton of 3s, with 40.8% of their points coming from deep. That's going to create a math problem for Atlanta seeing as 66.9% of its field-goal attempts come from 2-point range, which is the highest mark in the league. And unfortunately for Quin Snyder's squad, the Celtics have a top-five 2-point defense.

The Celtics also come into this series with NBA Finals experience and a group that knows what it takes to win in the postseason together. In terms of betting on the series, I would either recommend taking Boston to win 4-0 or 4-1.

If you want to back Atlanta in some fashion, you could certainly take them to cover a single-game spread. For as much as I think Boston easily wins the series, Atlanta certainly has the talent to keep these games somewhat close.

My Pick: Celtics win 4-0 vs. Hawks (+260, FanDuel)

Knicks vs. Cavaliers Series Prediction

The Cleveland Cavaliers just wrapped up one of their best regular seasons in recent history, winning more than 50 games for the first time since the 2016-17 season. For Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Isaac Okoro, this will be their first playoff series since entering the league. As a reward, the Cavs will meet the Knicks in the first round of the playoffs.

Having met four times this season, these two teams are very familiar with each other. The Knicks took three of those four games, however, I like Cleveland to win this series. The health of Julius Randle is going to be a huge difference-maker in this series. His status is unclear after spraining his ankle two weeks ago and winning a seven-game series without him is going to be tough.

The Cavs had the best defensive rating in the league this year with both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen serving as rim protectors. On the perimeter, Cleveland defends the 3 well, allowing the fewest wide-open 3s in the league this season.

That’s going to be huge when it comes to slowing down a Knicks team that shoots 3s at a high volume. New York’s offense finished the season tied for the league lead and Jalen Brunson was a huge part of that. However, the Cavs have Donovan Mitchell, who can counter Brunson offensively. Plus, Mitchell is going to be playing with a chip on his shoulder after the Knicks decided not to trade for him in the offseason.

I think this series is going to be tight, but if Randle is unable to go early on, that’s going to give Cleveland a huge advantage, which is why I’ll take its series spread Cavs -1.5. 

My Pick: Cavaliers Series Spread -1.5 vs. Knicks (+105, BetMGM)

Warriors vs. Kings Series Prediction

This series is so interesting to me because the Kings are the No. 3 seed, yet they're underdogs to the No. 6 Warriors. The Kings opened as the favorite for Game 1 of the series, but that line has flipped to the Warriors as the slight favorite at some books. What I'm gathering from all of this is that the market doesn't really know what to make of this matchup.

On one hand, Golden State is the defending NBA champ. It has the best shooter the game has ever seen in Steph Curry and a supporting cast of All-Stars. On the other hand, the Warriors have been atrocious on the road, going 11-30 SU and 12-28-1 ATS away from Chase Center.

Meanwhile, the Kings have been consistently good all year. They have a young, talented roster that makes up the best offense in the league this season. Yet, this is the first time in 16 years that Sacramento has made the postseason, so they come into this series without any playoff experience together.

For as good a story as the Kings have been this year, I don't see them getting past the Warriors. The playoffs are a different animal and experience matters. Golden State also knows everything that Kings head coach (and former Warriors assistant coach) Mike Brown is going to do just as much as Brown knows what Golden State's going to do.

With Andrew Wiggins back in the fold for the Warriors, their defense should take a step forward, which will give them an advantage against a Kings' defense that is among the worst in the NBA when at home. Golden State will steal at least one game in Sacramento and close out the series on its home floor in Game 6.

My Pick: Warriors win 4-2 vs. Kings (+240, FanDuel)

Lakers vs. Grizzlies Series Prediction

My initial thought in this series was that the Lakers would win in six or seven games. Without Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke in the lineup, I thought the Grizzlies would struggle on the interior. After looking at the matchups more closely, the Lakers don't exactly have a true frontcourt with Anthony Davis being more of a stretch big, so I'm not sure Memphis is going to be as affected as they would be against a team like the Nuggets or Sixers.

Dillion Brooks, who is an extremely good defender, will be tasked with guarding LeBron James and Memphis has other players who can slow the Lakers' perimeter game down. On the other side, I'm not sure who's going to be able to stop Ja Morant because the Lakers don't have anyone who matches up well with him defensively.

This might sound crazy, but while James is the best player between these two teams, Morant will be the best player in this series because of his situation. In his two games against the Purple and Gold this season, Morant is averaging 30.5 points and put up 29.0 field-goal attempts per game, which is the most against any team this season. That tells me that the Lakers haven't had success containing him.

Morant, and really the Grizzlies as a whole, can get downhill quickly, ranking first in fast-break points since the All-Star break. That's going to be an issue for the Lakers, who are 28th in opponents' fast-break points over that same span.

My counterargument to Memphis winning this series is that the Lakers are peaking at the right time. They're not as talented top-to-bottom as the Grizzlies, but if both James and Davis are healthy, this team has a shot against anyone.

Because I could make a solid argument for either team to advance, I'm not going to be on a series spread or exact outcome. Instead, I'd recommend betting the series to finish in six or seven games.

My Pick: Series to finish in six games (+200, Caesars) or seven games (+185, FanDuel)

Clippers vs. Suns Series Prediction

The Suns are the heavy favorites at -600 to win this series while the Clippers are +400 to pull off the upset. There isn’t any value in taking Phoenix at that price, so I’m going to look to bet the exact number of games that will be played instead.

With the stacked roster that the Suns have, I don’t see this series going more than five games. With Kevin Durant in the lineup, Phoenix is a perfect 8-0. Not only is he a massive threat to score every time he touches the ball, but he gives the Suns' offense so much more spacing, giving Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton room to operate.

With Paul George’s health still in question, I don’t think the Clippers have what it takes to make this a competitive series. The Suns have the advantage inside with Ayton matching up against Ivica Zubac. The Clippers are a bottom-10 offensive rebounding team since the break, while the Suns have been top-10 in rim protection. Three-point shooting will be big for L.A., given that it’s the third-best 3-point shooting team (39.0%) since the All-Star break and Kawhi Leonard is going to have to carry the majority of the offensive load. The Clippers are good enough to take one game in this series, but without George, their season is going to be over soon.

My Pick: Suns Beat Clippers 4-1 (+220, DraftKings)

Heat vs. Bucks Prediction

The Bucks earned the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference and will have home-court advantage throughout the entire postseason thanks to its league-leading record of 58-24. Milwaukee had the fourth-best defense on the season and the sixth-best offense since the All-Star break. Not to mention, it has Giannis Antetokounmpo, who I believe to be the best player in the league right now.

This is a seasoned team full of veterans that won an NBA championship two years ago. They know exactly what it takes to get back there. Milwaukee has dealt with injuries to a number of players, including Khris Middleton, but if the Bucks are able to stay healthy, I don't see anyone in the East being able to stop them.

The Heat got past the Bulls in the second play-in game thanks to a run in the final minutes of the game. Miami will give the Bucks a bit more trouble than I think Chicago would have, but I still don't see this being a long series. The Heat won both games of their home games against the Bucks and dominated Milwaukee on the boards and in the paint. They out-rebounded the Bucks 112-64 and won the paint battle 112-44. However, Giannis didn't play in either of those games. With the Greek Freak on the floor, those stats were drastically different and Milwaukee is by far the more talented, deeper team.

The books aren't giving Miami a fighting chance with the Bucks sitting at -1000 to win the series. If we get an inspired performance from Jimmy Butler, the Heat could steal one, so I'll take the series to go five total games.

My pick: Bucks beat Heat 4-1 (+205, DraftKings)

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction

The Denver Nuggets finished with the best record in the Western Conference at 53-29, earning the No. 1 seed. Nikola Jokic is going to be the best player on the floor throughout the opening series and should have no problem dominating the boards over the Thunder or Timberwolves. Offensively, the Nuggets put up some big numbers, especially at home, while their defense has been league-average.

My concern with the Nuggets is their depth. Their starting lineup can compete with pretty much anyone, but as soon as their bench comes into the game, that's when things get dicey. Michael Malone has tried numerous different second-team lineups throughout the season, but nothing seemed to work. That's likely going to result in an extremely short bench rotation, which puts more pressure on the starters and could eventually wear them down if any series goes six or seven games.

The Wolves dismantled the Thunder in the second play-in game to make their second-straight playoff appearance. Minnesota split the season series with the Nuggets even with Karl-Anthony Towns sidelined with an injury for all four games.

I expect the Nuggets to get past the Wolves in this series, but Minnesota does have some big bodies that they can throw at Jokic to try and slow him down. That said, the two-time MVP is averaging a triple-double against the Wolves this season, so I'm not sure how effective Rudy Gobert, KAT or even Kyle Anderson will be at stopping him. Minnesota has the talent to win a game or two but that's it. The Nuggets' electric offense will be too much over a seven-game series.

My pick: Nuggets beat Timberwolves 4-2 (+410, FanDuel)