NBA Player Prop Picks for October 29: Michael Porter Jr. and Kevin Huerter Primed to Deliver

The NBA season continues to heat up, and Tuesday night’s action features intriguing matchups with valuable player prop opportunities. Michael Porter Jr. looks to find his rhythm against the Nets, while Kevin Huerter seeks to take advantage of a Jazz team that has struggled to defend opposing guards. I’ll break down why both players are well-positioned to exceed expectations in tonight’s games and share our best bets for these prop plays. Here’s a closer look at the numbers, trends, and matchups that make these picks enticing.

Nuggets SF Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 Made Threes vs. Nets (-110, DraftKings)

The Nuggets have been playing some concerningly-bad basketball to start the new season, losing to the Thunder by 15 and then the Clippers by five before needing overtime to get by the lowly Raptors by just two points last night. MPJ has been playing some big minutes (32, 38, 39) out of the gates and has gotten off to a slow start like the rest of his team, scoring 12.3 points per game on 35.7% shooting, including 20% from three. The sample size is obviously very small and Porter is streaky, so I’m not concerned yet. This matchup against Brooklyn is quite a get-right spot.

Nikola Jokic has been putting work in as a scorer so far because he’s been getting no consistent help. This is an opportunity for Porter to show that he’s worth the boatload of money Denver is paying him and make things happen, especially when the defense collapses on the big man. In the small sample, Brooklyn has allowed their opponents to shoot 37.4% from three (21st in the NBA), and we’ve seen Porter have success from beyond the arc over the years and even catch fire at times. He’s gone over 14.5 points in four of his last five meetings against the Nets and went for 23, 28 and 28 in three of those contests, shooting 58.2% from the field and 52.9% from three overall against Brooklyn in his career.

Before the season, per The Denver Post, Porter commented that volume three-point shooting is going to need to be a part of his game this year.

“I think we’ve got a lot of players that, they like to get to the midrange, they like to get to the rim,” Porter said. “So we know in this day in age, teams score a lot of points when they get some 3s up. So I don’t have my partner in crime, KCP. He was kind of a volume shooter last year. So we don’t have any really volume 3-point shooters. I think Jamal (Murray), he’ll shoot some 3s, but he likes to get to the middy. Joker should probably take a couple more per game. But I know it’s gonna be up to me and Julian (Strawther) to really be the volume 3-point shooters.”

So far, he’s gone 3-for-10, 0-for-6 and 1-for-4 from three. The Nuggets have made 10.0 threes per game (T-23rd) and have attempted 31.0 (25th).

I suspect this will be the adjustment Michael Malone and his staff put in the gameplan against Brooklyn tonight and MPJ should be a beneficiary of that game plan.

Kings SG Kevin Huerter Over 8.5 Points vs. Jazz (-120, DraftKings)

The Jazz have had a hard time defending two-guards this season. Kyrie Irving scored 23 against them last time out. Buddy Hield lit them up for 27 and Moses Moody chipped in with 12 in a blowout loss to the Warriors the game before that. Desmond Bane added 24 in the season-opener. After a disappointing 2023-2024 campaign and season opener, Huerter has been solid over the last two starts, posting 14 and then 18 points against the Lakers and Trail Blazers. Minutes were also not a concern last game; he played 33, which is an important note for him.

Alongside De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, DeMar DeRozan and Keegan Murray, Huerter is going to be overlooked by opposing defenses all year long, which should be a positive for his efficiency and quality of shot attempts. Over his last two games, he’s gone 4-for-7 and then 4-for-9 from three-point range. Now back into a groove following his offseason surgery, he’s finding his rhythm as the team continues to adjust to DeRozan’s addition. Don’t forget that he shot 40% from three in 2022-2023, so the 6’7” wing should be able to do damage again against the Jazz, who have the league’s 3rd-worst Defensive Rating (117.9) and have allowed their opponents to attempt an NBA-high 44.7 three-pointers per game.

The Kings have scored 16.4% of their points on fast breaks this season (7th-most), 87.5% of their three-pointers have been assisted (7th-most) and Huerter has averaged 7.0 points per game on catch-and-shoot opportunities, which leads the team along with Keegan Murray. Overall, he’s seen 5.7 field goal attempts on those catch-and-shoot opportunities and went 4-for-9 for 12 points on such looks last game. No team has allowed more assists than the Jazz.

Over 1.5 made threes for Huerter is juiced way up to -190 and longer, so I’m going to roll with his points prop and bet over 8.5 there instead. Another option is getting an alternate made threes prop (3+ or 4+) at plus-money, but there’s more safety in the traditional points prop in this instance.

Quick-Hitter: Kings C Domantas Sabonis Over 5.5 1Q Points vs. Jazz (+112, FanDuel)

Arguably the best rebounding center in the NBA, Sabonis has a dream matchup against the Jazz tonight. Utah owns the 5th-worst first quarter Defensive Rating in the NBA this season, but it’s the way in which they’ve allowed points in the opening frame that makes Sabonis stand out.

The Jazz have allowed an NBA-worst 8.7 second-chance points in the first quarter and the Kings have made 92.9% of their shots within five feet in the opening quarter and Sabonis has averaged 5.7 points and 3.7 rebounds in 10.5 minutes, going over 5.5 points in two of his three starts so far. All we need is for him to make three buckets around the rim and take advantage of Utah’s inability to pull down defensive rebounds! I love getting this at plus-money.

Get up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets at BetMGM! All you need to do is CLICK HERE, sign up for a new account, make your first deposit and bet! Don’t miss out!