NBA Playbook: Betting Lines, Odds & Picks For Friday, Nov. 4
The top betting trends you need to know for Friday's NBA slate
Matthew Horner - Nov 4, 2022, 12:20pm EDTNBA Betting Lines, Odds & Picks for Friday
The BetQL model has been on an absolute heater in all sports over the past week, but it has been killing NBA Basketball. Today, we have a huge 12-game NBA slate to take a look at on a fantastic Friday, so let's find some value where we can.
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Bulls vs. Celtics Prediction
The Chicago Bulls will match up with the Boston Celtics for the second time this season, after Chicago blew them out the first time. Both of these teams have been playing well to begin the season, even if they are just one game over .500 each. The Bulls don't even have their full roster due to injuries, and Zach LaVine apparently has a knee issue that keeps him from playing every night, but they have been impressive, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Chicago allows just 109 points per game, which is a top-10 number in the league. That is a far cry from how bad they were last season at stopping people, and they are still without Lonzo Ball for the foreseeable future.
The Celtics entered the season as the NBA title favorites, and they haven't been bad, but maybe not as great as some hoped. They certainly have been doing their part on offense, scoring a whopping 116 points per contest. They just can't stop anyone, allowing 114 points per game defensively, which is below-average and very unlike this Boston team. They need to rediscover their defense if they want to be close to the team they were last season, and if they can, this team can really make a run with how electric they have been offensively. Boston is also 38-25 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two years.
PICK: The Celtics are a massive favorite here, and I'm not sure why. I can see them being favored here at home but by 7 points? That is a little much if you ask me. I'll take the points with Chicago.
Bucks vs. Timberwolves Prediction
Milwaukee has been the best team in the NBA out of the gates, and they are sitting pretty with a perfect 7-0 record. They will put that on the line when they visit the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday. The Bucks have been remarkably efficient on defense, almost unbelievable actually. They are allowing just 102 points per game to their opponents, which is a four point difference from the next closest team. They simply don't allow for good looks at the basket, they protect the rim with impunity, and they dominate their matchups. On offense, they haven't been as impressive, but that doesn't matter when your opponents can barely pass 100 points. They are also 6-1 ATS, so this team has been a bulldozer.
As for Minnesota, I would say they have been pretty average to start the season. Not just because they are 4-4, but just by watching them play. On offense, they average about 114 points per game, which is around league average right now. Defensively, they are allowing just over 113. So there really isn't a huge difference there, which is why they have a perfectly balanced record so far. On thing to keep note of is the fact that they are just 3-5 ATS so far, so they have been disappointing relative to their expected performance.
PICK: Minnesota plays better at home, but I'd be foolish to take them over Milwaukee here at such a small spread. Maybe it's a trap, maybe it isn't, but you just have to take them with how good they have been. As always, keep an eye on injury news, as it changes quickly in the NBA.
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Prediction
Both Portland and Phoenix have been red hot to begin the season, coming out swinging with 5-2 and 6-1 records, respectively. The Trail Blazers might be without superstar guard Damian Lillard again in this one, which is why this point spread is so large for them on the road. Even without him, the Blazers have played a respectable brand of basketball. On defense, they have been a top-10 squad, allowing just 111 points per game. The offense has been lacking a bit, but that is to be expected without Lillard in there to score 30+ per night for them. Still, this has been a shockingly good team to begin the year, and they will be even more dangerous when Dame returns. They are also 5-1-1 ATS.
Phoenix may be a different animal entirely, however. This is a team that I actually wanted to fade to start the season, and they have slapped me in the face. The Suns are phenomenal, right up there with the Bucks for the two best teams in basketball to begin the season. On offense, Phoenix is scoring a ridiculous 118 points per game, which is tied for best in the NBA. On defense, they are allowing just 106 points per game, which is a top-5 number in the league. There isn't much argument here, they are nothing short of great.
PICK: Portland is a good team, and I like them when they have Lillard, but I don't see them standing much of a chance here on the road without him against this Suns team. I'll take Phoenix at a big number, as they have been blowing out everyone.