NBA Expert Picks For Friday, Jan. 20

NBA Picks, Predictions

Another day of NBA action means another day of tough decisions for bettors. To help you make the best bets today, the BetQL editors have picked a few of their favorite NBA bets below using key trends, data and picks from the BetQL NBA model.

One trend to note is that the BetQL NBA model is on fire, going 49-28 (64%) on all picks rated ⭐⭐ and higher in the last three days for a total return of $1,017 on $100 bets! Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of today's best NBA bets, plus what the model is projecting for this week's NFL, NHL, and NCAA basketball games! Start your free trial today!

Kate Constable: Thunder-Kings Over 241.5

The Kings have gone over this number in four of their last five games and in that five-game span, they have an offensive rating of 132.1. That’s the best mark in the league, and nearly 10 points higher than the second-place Nuggets. It’s not too surprising that the Kings' effective field-goal percentage and true shooting percentage also lead the league. The Thunder aren’t far behind, ranking in the top 10 in each of those categories. OKC has also shot over 50% from the field in three of its last four games and has been outscoring teams in the paint. We’re looking at a fast-paced game with plenty of action on offense, so take the over 241.5.

Dan Karpuc: Nuggets -11 vs. Pacers

Tyrese Haliburton will be out for the Pacers, which means trouble for Indiana. The Pacers are just 1-5 SU without their star point guard this season and four of those losses have come by double digits, including the last three (18-point loss to the Grizzlies, 13-point loss to the Bucks and 20-point loss to the Thunder last time out). Riding a five-game losing streak, this Pacers squad is in very bad form right now.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets are riding an eight-game winning streak and have gone 15-2 SU (11-5-1 ATS) over their last 17 games. In Denver, the Nuggets have thrived, going 20-3 SU (14-8-1 ATS) this season, so I expect that high altitude and thin air to be a factor once again. Since Haliburton took on so much usage and ran the entire Pacers offense when he was healthy, this Indiana team currently is struggling on offense and I’m going to continue backing whoever they’re playing until oddsmakers adjust properly. An 11-point spread in the NBA is scary, but I see the Nuggets winning in a blowout.

Lucy Burdge: Heat -1 at Mavericks

The Heat have covered the spread in four of their last six road games, while the Mavs are just 8-13 ATS at home and have covered just twice in their last 10 games overall. Plus, the Mavericks have lost five of their last six games outright, and the Heat have won four of their last five and are coming off of a huge win and cover at New Orleans. I like the Heat to get another win and cover here tonight.

Brad Pinkerton: Nets-Jazz +138 One-Game Parlay

BetMGM NBA OGP Insurance Play of the Day

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Here is my play for today, switching up the strategy slightly to remove spreads from the equation: Find a comfortable favorite of 5-8 points, preferably at home, take the favorite to go over its lowest team total, the 'dog to go under its highest team total and then "middle" the game total (can only lose a maximum of one leg there). There's less reward than trying to middle both the total and spread, but there's also less risk here and still a good shot at getting insurance if it doesn't hit. You can apply this strategy to any NBA game, any night:

Nets-Jazz Over 219.5
Nets-Jazz Under 239.5
Jazz Over 108.5
Nets Under 121.5
OGP odds: +138

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MORE NBA: TODAY’S BETTING GUIDE | TOP PLAYER PROPS

Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of today's best NBA bets, plus what the model is projecting for this week's NFL, NHL and NCAA basketball games! Start your free trial today!