English Premier League
We finish off the week with a five-game NBA slate. Scroll down to see which sides and totals I'm targeting and what other plays our BetQL model likes for today.
One trend to note is that the BetQL NBA model is red-hot, going 31-14 (69%) on all picks rated ⭐⭐⭐ and higher in the last three days for a total return of $689 on $100 bets! Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of today's best NBA bets, plus what the model is projecting for this week's NFL, NHL, and NCAA basketball games! Start your free trial today!
The Cleveland Cavaliers (29-20 SU, 24-22-3 ATS, 22-27 O/U) continue their road trip with a matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder (23-24 SU, 30-17 ATS, 27-20 O/U).
The Cavs played last night, beating the Rockets, 113-95, in Houston and covering as eight-point favorites. The Thunder are coming off a loss to the Hawks on Wednesday and failed to cover, but have been covering machines lately, going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. I don't love betting the Cavs on the road because they've struggled away from home this season and this line suggests that Cleveland might sit a few players, including Donovan Mitchell (groin), who missed Thursday's game. OKC is also 6-3 ATS as home favorites, which is the second-best mark in the NBA, so I'll lay the short number with the home team.
My Pick: Thunder -1
The Indiana Pacers (23-27 SU, 26-23-1 ATS, 23-27 O/U) host the Milwaukee Bucks (30-17 SU, 24-21-2 ATS, 22-25 O/U) tonight for their second meeting of the season.
The Pacers have been really bad in the first quarter all season, but especially bad since Tyrese Halliburton has been out. At 14-25 ATS on the season, they are the worst team at covering first-quarter spreads by a large margin. They’re also 0-5 ATS in the first quarter over their last five home games. The Bucks rank eighth in the league in first-quarter points with 30.9 over their last 10 games while the Pacers are dead last with only 25.4. I am only going to bet this if Giannis Antetokounmpo plays, so be sure to check the injury report before placing any wager.
My Pick: Bucks 1Q -3
The Minnesota Timberwolves (25-25 SU, 22-27-1 ATS, 24-26 O/U) host the Memphis Grizzlies (31-16 SU, 23-22-2 ATS, 21-24-2 O/U) with the season series tied at one game apiece.
I'm going to target the total of 238.5 in this game, which seems just a bit too high. The first meeting between these two teams totaled 217 points and the second one finished at 210. While these are top-10 teams in terms of pace over the last five games, their offensive efficiency actually ranks in the bottom 10. Memphis also bounced Minnesota from the playoffs last year, so there is a bit of a revenge factor here that's given the previous two meetings a playoff-type atmosphere, resulting in better defense and lower scoring.
My pick: Grizzlies-Timberwolves u238.5
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