NBA Futures: Great Value on Kings to Win Pacific Division
Here's why you shouldn't back the Suns or Clippers to win the division
Kate Constable - Feb 22, 2023, 3:36pm EST
There are only about 20 games left in the NBA regular season, which means, depending on what you're betting on, there is very little value left in the futures market. The awards market is pretty much decided for a number of the categories and betting on season win totals doesn't present much value.
Unless something goes completely sideways over the next month, the Celtics, Bucks and Grizzlies have their respective divisions locked up. The Heat are -330 in the Southeast Division, which feels pretty safe with the Hawks as the next closest team at +330. Not to mention the Hawks just fired their head coach, so I doubt they'll be stacking wins in the short term.
That leaves just the Pacific as the only division that I would recommend betting on for the remainder of the season. And you might be surprised to hear that I wouldn't put my money on the Suns or the Clippers to come away with the regular-season title. Instead, grab the value with the Sacramento Kings at +480 at FanDuel.
Why the Suns Won't Win the Pacific
When Kevin Durant was traded to the Phoenix Suns on Feb. 9, the team's odds to win the NBA championship plummeted from +1800 to +450. The Suns' odds to win the division also took a nosedive and they are currently the odds-on favorite at -150. All of this change happened before Durant even stepped on the floor in a Suns uniform. I'm not going to sit here and try to argue that Phoenix isn't a significantly better team with Durant on it, but we don't know what the Suns' new Big 3 -- or Big 4 if you include Deandre Ayton -- is going to look like together.
Phoenix currently sits in third in the division, just one game behind the Clippers for second place and 1.5 games behind the Kings for first place. That isn't a significant amount to make up, but there also isn't a significant amount of time to do so. The Suns' remaining schedule features two matchups with the Kings, Bucks and Nuggets, and meetings with the Warriors and Clippers. That's not a cakewalk of a schedule.
Durant is supposed to make his debut on Friday, which leaves 22 games until the end of the regular season. How many games is it going to take for Durant, Devin Booker and Chris Paul to jell? Will they all stay healthy enough to be on the floor together? These are three players who have been extremely injury prone over the last year and Durant is still nursing an injury.
Most importantly, I don't think Phoenix cares about the division title. The Suns see an opportunity to win an NBA title this year, so if that means resting players down the stretch or using a few games to experiment with different lineups, they're not going to care if it costs them the division title.
Why the Clippers Won't Win
I see a very similar story when it comes to the Clippers winning the division. They also acquired new pieces, which I believe will make them better, but may hinder them in the short term as they learn to play together. That includes signing Russell Westbrook from the buyout market. Westbrook has been a wild card over the last two seasons. He's either going to fit in great with his new L.A. team or things are going to quickly go south, just as they did with the Lakers.
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are finally back in the lineup consistently after using the majority of the first half of the season for load management. However, I wouldn't be shocked if Ty Lue decided to rest them more toward the end of the season to ensure they're healthy for the postseason.
Similar to the Suns, I don't think the division title means anything to this team -- at least not in the same way it does to the Kings. Sacramento hasn't made the postseason since 2007, making its 16-season drought the longest of any franchise in NBA history. A spot in the playoffs will undoubtedly mean a ton to the team and the city, but a division title in the process would be the cherry on top. If Sacramento remains at the top of the standings and has a shot at winning the Pacific, you better believe they're going to do everything they can to make it a reality.
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