NBA Finals: Betting Trends, Series Odds & Expert Picks For Celtics vs. Warriors
Golden State and Boston each have their own betting trends to exploit
Nick Ashooh - Jun 2, 2022, 12:26pm EDTBetting Trends, Series Odds & Expert Picks For NBA Finals
After all the unpredictability throughout the NBA Playoffs, we're down to the final two teams chasing a title in the Boston Celtics and the Golden State Warriors.
On one side, we have a Warriors franchise that's been here six times in eight years, while the Celtics make their first finals appearance since 2010. This is the best NBA Finals matchup we could've asked for, but that doesn't take away from how different these two teams really are.
Experience Matters
First off, no one should be surprised that the Warriors are back here. After essentially taking two years off as a franchise decimated by injuries, the Warriors reloaded with some youth, while finally getting their Big 3 back on the court together -- sort of. Klay Thompson, Steph Curry and Draymond Green only saw the court together for 11 total minutes this regular season, but they were finally all healthy for the start of the playoffs.
It was a long road back, that's for sure.
That doesn't take away from what this team has seen, though, with their roster having played collectively in 123 NBA Finals games, while the Celtics have a grand total of zero together.
There's also the coaching side of things, with Steve Kerr having won eight rings as a player and coach, and Boston’s first-year coach Ime Udoka having only been to the Finals as an assistant.
Clearly, an advantage there for the Warriors wouldn't you say?
Commitment to Defense
This doesn't take away from what the Celtics have become as a team, winning 26 of their last 32 regular-season games, then fighting through back-to-back seven-game series against the defending champion Bucks, and the top-seeded Heat.
It's been a grind for Boston.
The Celtics' turnaround in the second half of the season was sparked by their commitment to defense, becoming as tough as any team in the league on that end of the floor. That has continued into the postseason, leading to the second-best defensive rating (105.1) in the playoffs after finishing with the best (106.2) during the regular season.
The Celtics are also second in opponent points per game (101.0) and opponent field-goal percentage (43.3).
Don't overlook what Golden State can do defensively, though. The Warriors finished just behind the Celtics in defensive rating after 82 games and are still sitting a solid sixth during the playoffs.
Plenty Of Offense, Too
The Warriors' defense tends to get overlooked even during all these Finals runs because they tend to be explosive on offense. When we're talking about changing the way the game is played over the last few years, that's flashier than tough defense.
They're the highest-scoring team in the playoffs at 114.5 points per game, and it really doesn't take much for them to blow a game wide open. They also have the second-highest point differential in the playoffs at +5.4, but they sit behind the Celtics at +6.1 in that department.
The more you lay it out, the more it's obvious this was the best NBA Finals matchup we could've had.
Celtics vs. Warriors Best Bets & Expert Picks
Even with the roller coaster of the last two series for the Celtics, they've been relatively consistent against the spread during the playoffs, going 12-6 ATS overall, and never having back-to-back games where they either lost outright or failed to cover.
Golden State is 9-7 ATS including a stretch where they failed to cover in five of seven games during the Denver and Memphis matchups, so keep that in mind.
The bigger difference in terms of trends between these teams comes with the total, where Boston is 8-10 O/U during the playoffs, and the Warriors, who were one of the more consistent teams to hit the under during the regular season, have gone 10-6 to the over.
Boston gets at least a little time off with the built-in gap from the Eastern Conference Finals and now, but they've still endured back-to-back grueling series that went the distance. The Warriors finished off Dallas in five games, haven't had to play in a Game 7, and will end up with a week off between times on the court once the Finals start Thursday night.
In the end, I've been on the Warriors (-160 series) to win it all since the start of the playoffs, and I like Golden State in six games (+500 on FanDuel). This also just has that feel of everyone willing Steph Curry to his first Finals MVP (-115), and we all know how those narratives can play into awards of any kind.
The Celtics won't make it easy, but Golden State has too much working in its favor to not come out on top when it's all said and done.
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