NBA Finals: Best Bets & Expert Picks For Celtics-Warriors Game 1

NBA Finals: Expert Picks For Celtics-Warriors Game 1

Dan Karpuc: Warriors -3.5   
Although I’ve been a diehard Celtics fan since birth, I think the Warriors are going to win this series in six games and I like Klay Thompson’s +1500 odds to win the Finals MVP. Golden State has gone 9-0 SU at home in these playoffs and has covered the spread in seven of those nine contests, including the last four. The Celtics have gone 7-2 SU and 6-2-1 ATS on the road, but I’m very high on the depth and overall quality of this Warriors squad. While Robert Williams and Al Horford have been gigantic parts of Boston’s postseason success, I fear that Steve Kerr is going to make life very uncomfortable for Ime Udoka and trot out his “death lineup” featuring Draymond Green at the five, Andrew Wiggins at the four and Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole in the backcourt. (That would likely force at least one, if not both, Celtics big men off the court.) When Boston’s defense is able to get set, they’re the best in the entire NBA, but I expect the Warriors to push the pace and not let that happen with as much frequency as other opponents did. Give me the Warriors -3.5 and their home-court advantage.

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Nick Ashooh: Warriors -3.5

Boston may not have the advantage in Finals experience, but they've been relatively consistent against the spread these playoffs, going 12-6 ATS overall, and never having back-to-back games where they either lost outright or failed to cover. Even more impressive, they've gone 8-1 ATS away from home, and 6-1 ATS as a road dog in the playoffs.

That being said, the Warriors have gone 7-2 ATS at home and as a home favorite so far, and Boston has lost its last two Game 1s. Given the stage, home court, and difference in time off between the conference finals, I like the Warriors to cover Thursday night, setting the tone for what should be a really competitive series.

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Lucy Burdge: Celtics +3.5 at Warriors
The Celtics covered the spread in four of their seven games against the Heat and I have a lot of confidence in them to cover this spread to kick off the NBA Finals. And some second-half road trends in their favor in this spot are the team is 16-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record; 20-3 ATS versus teams averaging at least 23 assists; and 16-2 versus teams making at least 46 percent of their shots. With all of this in mind, I really like the Celtics to cover this spread on the road in Game 1.

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Brad Pinkerton: Under 213.5

I think Game 1 is going to be about these two offenses feeling out two tough defenses and I expect some shooting struggles before either offense finds a rhythm as the series progresses. While we've seen the Warriors hitting the over during the playoffs (10-6 O/U), even against a methodical Dallas team, they haven't faced a defense like the Celtics' yet. And even though Boston (8-10 O/U in the playoffs) has seen some overs lately, most came against deflated totals versus the Heat. In terms of scoring, I think this matchup compares more closely to Milwaukee, when the Celtics and Bucks went 2-5 O/U, often going way under the total early in the series. It's also worth noting that when the total has been 211-214 this season, Boston is 9-12-1 O/U, while Golden State is just 1-6.

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