NBA Betting Guide For Monday, March 6
Odds, picks, sleepers and promos for Monday’s NBA slate
Kate Constable - Mar 6, 2023, 2:42pm EST
NBA Betting Odds For Tonight
Monday’s six-game slate is headlined by a matchup between the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers and an NBA TV showdown between the Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat will also be featured. BetQL is your one-stop destination for live NBA betting odds, best bets from our model, sharp picks, public bets, line movement data, exclusive articles and much more. Below, you’ll see a breakdown for some of tonight’s most intriguing games from a betting perspective, expert picks from the BetQL Editorial Team, sleeper picks to consider as well as some epic promotions to take advantage of. Scroll down to get started or click on any of the links below to head to a specific section.
NBA Previews & Predictions For Tonight
Raptors at Nuggets Prediction
My Pick: Nuggets -6
The Toronto Raptors (32-33 SU, 30-33-2 ATS, 34-31 O/U) continue their road trip with a stop in the Mile High City to take on the Denver Nuggets (45-19 SU, 35-26-3 ATS, 30-33 O/U) for the first time this season.
The Nuggets are so good on their home floor that it’s going to be hard for a team like the Raptors to hang with them. Denver is 20-10-1 ATS as a home favorite, while Toronto is 13-19 ATS on the road. The Raptors are also ranked 29th in opponent 3-point percentage, which is pretty bad, especially against a team like the Nuggets, who lead the league shooting 40.6% from deep. Toronto also hasn’t been scoring a ton lately, averaging just 104.0 points over its last five, which makes me believe that its going to have a hard time keeping up with Denver’s offensive production. Grab the Nuggets at -6 at Caesars and enjoy a nice sign-up bonus!
Hawks at Heat Prediction
My Pick: Hawks +3 or ML
The Atlanta Hawks (32-32 SU, 27-36-1 ATS, 34-30 O/U) and Miami Heat (34-31 SU, 23-40-2 ATS, 28-35 O/U) meet for the second time in as many days.
The Heat have been struggling lately, losing six of their last eight games and failing to cover in each of those. However, one of their two wins during that stretch came yesterday against the Hawks, but I think the Hawks take this one tonight. The Heat shot significantly better than Atlanta on Sunday and both Trae Young and Dejounte Murray had terrible shooting nights. They combined to go 5-for-27 from the field and 0-for-10 from deep. They’re not going to shoot that bad on consecutive nights, which is why I think they have a chance to pull off the upset tonight and get a little revenge on the Heat.
Pelicans at Kings Prediction
My Picks: Kings Team Total Over 120.5
The Sacramento Kings (37-26 SU, 35-28 ATS, 32-29 O/U) are going to be looking to Light the Beam tonight with a win over the New Orleans Pelicans (31-33 SU, 29-34-1 ATS, 33-31 O/U).
The Kings have been putting up some huge numbers lately. They’ve scored at least 124 points in each of their last six games and are averaging 131.0 over their last four. They own the second-best field-goal percentage in the league over that span, knocking down 54.0% of their shots. They have also been taking exceptional care of the basketball, only turning the ball over 8.5 times per game. The Pelicans have a number of players on the injury report tonight, including Jonas Valanciunas. If he’s unable to play tonight, Domantas Sabonis is going to have a field day down low. New Orleans’ defense also isn’t anything to write home about. It ranks 17th in the league over its last five games and is giving up the fifth-most second-chance points over that span. I expect a big game from the home team tonight, which is why I like the Kings to go over their team total at 120.5.
More NBA Expert Picks For Tonight
Dan Karpuc: Kings -6 vs. Pelicans: The BetQL model is backing the Kings to cover the spread, which is very important. It has gone 18-7 (72%) when backing Sacramento to cover this season and if you bet $100 every time, you’d be up $1,030 right now! Also, the Pelicans have gone an absurdly terrible 2-16 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record on the road this season, while the Kings have gone 22-10 ATS against teams with losing records. New Orleans’ lineup is depleted with injuries right now and Sacramento has gone 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS over their last six contests. The Pels have also gone 1-4 SU (1-4 ATS) in their last five games. LIGHT THE BEAM.
Matt Horner: Raptors F Scottie Barnes u14.5 points. Toronto will be in Denver tonight to take on the Nuggets, and the under on Scottie Barnes' points looks to be a good play. Barnes has not gotten to 15 points in any of his last five matchups, with 14 being his highest against the Wizards. He’s averaging just 12.2 over that span, so I’ll take a shot he stays under 15 again.
Brad Pinkerton: Trae Young & Jimmy Butler to combine for 55+ points (boosted to +300 at FanDuel). This is a solid odds boost tonight from FanDuel, which has boosted Young & Butler combining for 55+ points from +260 to +300. These two combined for a whopping 23 points (lol) on Saturday, and you can bet that won't happen again in the rematch. Young's point total is set at 23.5 with Butler's at 22.5 for 46 combined, so we'll need both to go over or at least one to have a big game, but the boost to +300 makes this worth a sprinkle tonight.
NBA Sleeper Picks For Tonight
Dan Karpuc: Hawks +145 at Heat. This is a rematch of Saturday’s game when the Heat earned a 117-109 win in South Beach. Before that, the Heat lost three of four contests on their home floor and have generally been untrustworthy all year as their 19-12 SU and 10-20-1 ATS home records show. Over the past three seasons, Trae Young and Co. have gone 69-46 SU (15.5% ROI) avenging a loss and have also gone 24-14 SU (29.1% ROI) when playing against a team with a win percentage of 51% to 60% in the second half of the season and 57-39 SU (14.7% ROI) against teams that average 23.0 or more assists per game.
Brad Pinkerton: Pacers +220 vs. 76ers. The Pacers are always a threat to pull off an upset at home; they're a solid 10-12 as home 'dogs and just much better at home in general, going 18-15 vs. 11-21 on the road. Indiana has also won three of its last four, while Philly has dropped three of its last five and is playing its fourth straight road game tonight. Grab the Pacers at the best price you can find.
NBA Promotions For Tonight
BetMGM NBA OGP Insurance Play of the Day
Brad Pinkerton: Hawks-Heat +400 One-Game Parlay. If you're not playing BetMGM's NBA OGP Insurance promo yet, you're leaving money on the table. Opt in to the promo and place a four-leg (minimum) NBA one-game parlay with at least +400 odds; if your OGP loses by one leg, you'll get your stake back in a free bet up to $25 -- and you can take advantage of this promo once every day there's an NBA game!
The new +400 odds requirement makes this much harder, but we've hit a couple of these already using the strategy of "middling" the alt total and alt spreads for each team to increase our chances of getting the insurance if the OGP doesn't hit. Also, DO NOT play these OGPs without the promo, as the insurance is the only reason these bets are valuable over time.
Here is my play for today. You can adjust each leg to your liking and apply this strategy to any NBA game, any night:
Hawks-Heat o219.5
Hawks-Heat u236.5
Hawks +7.5
Heat +7.5
OGP odds: +400
Join BetMGM to start taking advantage of their daily OGP insurance promos across NBA, NHL and EPL/UCL. New BetMGM customers also get a risk-free first bet up to $1,000 using the offer below!
Stories you might also like
See All
