Big-Name Offseason Additions Won’t Lift Off Rockets

Houston Rockets Outlook

Let’s not sugarcoat this: the Rockets were a dumpster fire over the last three seasons, going a combined 59-177 under head coach Stephen Silas. 

As a result, Silas was axed and the embattled Ime Udoka was signed to a multi-year deal after spending a year out of the game. After that signing was announced, veteran free agents Fred VanVleet (three years, $128,539,835) and Dillon Brooks (four years, $80 million) were signed and rookies Amen Thompson (4th overall) and Cam Whitmore (20th overall) were selected in the 2023 NBA Draft. Not only that, but reigning NBA champion Jeff Green signed in free agency, as did veteran big man Jock Landale, who should also provide depth.

As a result, there’s some optimism that the Rockets will take an immediate step forward. But, after running 10,000 simulations of every game of the upcoming season, that isn’t projected to happen. Scroll down to find out why and see our model’s exact projection.

Rockets Under 31.5 Regular Season Wins (+100, DraftKings)  

I expect this to be the starting five for the Rockets to open the year: PG VanVleet, SG Jalen Green, SF Dillon Brooks, PF Jabari Smith Jr., C Alperen Sengun. Thompson, Whitmore, Tari Eason, Landale, Green, Aaron Holiday, Jae’Sean Tate and Darius Days should be the options off the bench. Unfortunately, Kevin Porter Jr. will not be a part of the team moving forward after some off-court allegations came to light.

Playing in the very tough Western Conference, Houston will face an uphill battle all year, having to face the Nuggets three times, Mavericks four times, Warriors three times, Clippers three times, Lakers four times and Suns four times. Not only that, but they’ll have to take on elite Eastern Conference teams multiple times as well with two games each against the Celtics, Heat, Bucks and 76ers.

To make matters even more concerning, Houston will play 13 of 20 games on the road from early January to the middle of February heading into the All-Star break. That’s tough for any team, not only a rebuilding one with lots of young players.

Last season, this team ranked 27th in Offensive Rating, 29th in Defensive Rating and 29th in Net Rating. I expect Udoka to improve on last year’s 22 regular season wins with VanVleet, Brooks and the rookies on the squad, but 31.5 is simply too high. You can get the under at +100 at DraftKings right now. 

BetQL Projection: 26-56