Can Angel Reese Catch Caitlin Clark In Rookie Of The Year Odds?

One of the most talked-about storylines of the WNBA season is undoubtedly the Rookie of the Year race between Caitlin Clark of the Indiana Fever and Angel Reese of the Chicago Sky.

The rivalry between these two players started in college when Reese's LSU Tigers beat Clark's Iowa Hawkeyes in the 2022 National Championship. The following season, Clark got the best of Reese when Iowa beat LSU in the Elite Eight.

The two have been the top rookies all season, with both players making compelling cases for Rookie of the Year. Clark has been the runaway favorite since before the season started, opening at -650 on BetMGM and dropping to -1000 by the beginning of June. Reese opened at 40-1 before falling to 12-1 in early June.

We are now just over the midway point of the season, and Clark is still the favorite at -1200, but Reese's odds continue to inch closer, sitting at +650. In terms of value, Reese is the only player worth betting on, yet I've outlined the case for each player below.

The Case for Caitlin Clark

Caitlin Clark has taken the WNBA by storm, setting unprecedented records and redefining rookie standards. She became the first WNBA rookie to reach 400 points, 150 assists, and 100 rebounds in a season, a testament to her all-around game and immediate impact. Clark is currently on pace to break the WNBA rookie record for assists per game, averaging an astonishing 11.7 assists over her last six games, far surpassing the previous record of 7.5 assists per game. On the season, she's averaging 7.8 dimes per game, which, for comparison, is 1.4 assists higher than Diana Taurasi averaged in her rookie campaign. Clark is just shy of Alyssa Thomas who owns the rookie regular season record for assists per game with 7.9, but Clark still has 15 games left to surpass that mark.

Her remarkable performances include a historic game against the Mystics, where she became the first WNBA player — not just rookie, but player — to post at least 25 points, 10 assists, five rebounds, five steals, and five 3-pointers in a single game. Last Saturday, Clark added another milestone by recording the first triple-double ever achieved by a WNBA rookie with 19 points, 13 rebounds and 12 assists.

In a recent game against Phoenix, Clark stuffed the stat sheet in a way only she and Angel McCoughtry have done in league history. They are the only rookies to post at least 20 points and 10 assists in a game, and Clark has now accomplished this feat twice. She also has six games with double-doubles from points and assists, tying the rookie record.

Leading the entire WNBA in points accounted for (points + points off assists), Clark's exceptional playmaking and scoring ability have solidified her as a transformative player in the league.

The Case for Angel Reese

Angel Reese has emerged as a strong contender for WNBA Rookie of the Year, largely due to her dominant performance on the boards. She recently made history by setting a rookie record with 15 consecutive double-doubles, surpassing the previous mark of 12 set by Candace Parker across the 2009 and 2010 seasons. Her streak came to an end on June 13, finishing with eight points against the New York Liberty.

In the past month alone, Reese has posted remarkable statistics, averaging 16.1 points, 14 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 0.7 blocks per game. For the entire season, she leads the league with an average of 11.9 rebounds per game and is among only four players averaging a double-double, alongside stars like A'ja Wilson, Napheesa Collier, and Dearica Hamby.

Reese has an incredible motor which has been instrumental in her dominance on the offensive glass, evident from her 110 offensive rebounds this season — 36 more than the next closest player, Aliyah Boston. Her rebounding prowess recently garnered praise from South Carolina head coach Dawn Staley, who recently endorsed Reese for the Rookie of the Year award.

At +650 to win the award at BetMGM, Reese presents significantly more value in the betting market compared to Clark. The Sky currently hold the eighth seed in the playoff race, trailing the seventh-seeded Fever by 1.5 games. A potential climb in the standings could further bolster Reese's case for Rookie of the Year honors.

Who Will Win?

If I were given a vote for Rookie of the Year, I would give the nod to Clark. However, it's important to remember that we're splitting hairs here. We have two exceptional rookies, each of whom could easily be the frontrunner in a different season.

One of my primary concerns with Reese is her inefficiency, particularly in scoring near the rim and from mid-range, which has been inconsistent throughout the season. She's shooting 46.0% on shots within five feet, where nearly 70% of her attempts originate. By comparison, A'ja Wilson shoots 67.6%, Aliyah Boston shoots 62.4%, and Brittney Griner shoots 70.1% from the same range. Additionally, Reese converts only 13% of her shots from 5-9 feet away from the basket. Improving her efficiency in these areas is crucial for her Rookie of the Year candidacy.

Clark stands out to me because her impact spans both ends of the court. Her ability to navigate defensive pressure, create scoring opportunities, and facilitate plays makes her a focal point for opposing defenses, often being guarded 94 feet away from the basket. Despite this, Clark continues to excel statistically and is poised to challenge numerous WNBA records as the season progresses. Her all-around contributions and ability to thrive under such defensive focus solidify her as my choice for Rookie of the Year.