NBA Play-In: Bulls vs. Raptors Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks

Bulls vs. Raptors Prediction

The Raptors host the Bulls in the Eastern Conference's No. 9 vs. No. 10 game in the NBA play-in tournament. The loser of this game will hit the white sandy beaches of Cancun. The winner will have another play-in game against the Heat after they lost to the Hawks on Tuesday night. Whichever team wins that game will earn the eighth seed in the playoffs and will be matched up with the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round.

Chicago Bulls Outlook

The Bulls finished the regular season with a 40-42 record overall. They lost two of their last four games but seemed to find a defensive identity toward the end of the season. The addition of Patrick Beverley has been a huge difference-maker for this Bulls team. He's provided a veteran presence and the leader Chicago was lacking early in the season. Over the last 10 games, Chicago ranks third in Defensive Rating, holding teams to under 110 points in six of those games. They also rank top five in the league in opponent points off of turnovers, second-chance points and points in the paint. Defending those areas is going to need to be a huge emphasis if Chicago wants to win this game because the Raptors' offense ranks in the top six in each of those same categories.

The Bulls dropped two of their three games against the Raptors this season thanks in large part to their lack of rebounding. Chicago was out-rebounded by a combined 18 boards in both of their losses. However, the one area where they outperformed the Raptors was in fast break points, which isn't too surprising considering Chicago leads the league in points off of turnovers over their last 10 games. That said, the Bulls' defense is going to have to work for those points because the Raptors turn the ball over at the lowest rate in the entire NBA.

The play of DeMar DeRozan is another factor that is going to change the outcome of this game for better or worse. DeRozan has struggled quite a bit this season when going up against his former team. His 14 points per game in this series is the lowest scoring average against any opponent this season. He put up 20 points against them in their first meeting but was held to nine and 13 in the remaining two. If the Raptors are able to shut down DeRozan once again, it's going to be up to Zach Lavine, Nikola Vucevic and Chicago's supporting cast to provide the scoring.

Toronto Raptors Outlook

After an up-and-down year, the Raptors ended the regular season with a .500 record. Toronto is made up of a ton of lengthy, athletic players that can get into passing lanes and make it tough for teams to penetrate the paint. It's led by Pascal Siakam who is playing some of the best basketball we've seen from him all season, averaging 26.3 points on 58.3% shooting from the field in the month of April. He only played in one game against Chicago this year due to injury but led Toronto in scoring with 20 points.

As a team, the Raptors are the second-best offensive rebounding team in the league over their last 10 games. They dominated Chicago in that category this season, pulling down 13 more offensive boards. Nick Nurse's squad has also been great at forcing the Bulls into poor decision-making with 17, 22, and 20 turnovers in each of their three meetings respectively. That's a welcomed sight for this Raptors team that ranks second in points off of turnovers and fast break points as of late, which is an area in which Chicago ranks in the bottom 10 in defending.

Toronto has also been great at home this season, going 27-14 SU and 25-16 ATS at Scotiabank Arena.

Bulls at Raptors Best Bet

As a Bulls fan, I would love nothing more than to tell you that I think Chicago has what it takes to win this game. But that would be lying and lying isn't nice. I do, however, think the Bulls have what it takes to cover the spread at +5.5.

The Raptors are the better team when it comes to offensive rebounding and taking care of the ball, with only 11.3 turnovers per game over their three games this season. O.G. Anunoby has also done a great job of slowing down DeRozan and taking him out of the game offensively. That said, Toronto excels in transition but struggles to score in the halfcourt. The Bulls are going to turn this game into a halfcourt matchup, which will allow them to dictate the pace of the game and keep the Raptors from getting out in transition.

For as much as DeRozan has struggled against his former team, he is a good enough player to make the necessary adjustments in this game to ensure he's able to get to his spots. Beverley's defense is also a huge addition for Chicago and something they didn't have during the first two meetings between these teams. Head over to BetMGM and grab the Bulls to cover +5.5 because it's sitting at +5 at most other places!

My Pick: Bulls +5.5

MORE: SEE TODAY’S TOP NBA PLAYER PROPS

BetQL members see betting trends and best bets for every game! Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see what the model is projecting for every NBA, MLB, NHL and soccer game this week! Start your free trial today!