Karpuc: My Favorite Bet On Wednesday’s NBA Slate

The reason why I love BetQL so much is that you can use its premium tools to suit your personal betting needs. Want to see best bets from its proven statistical model? Cool. Want to see sharp (expert) data to validate your existing bet? Sweet. Want to fade the public? Sounds good. Whatever your strategy is, you can make the most informed bets possible using BetQL. In the example below, I’ll explain how I used the platform to find my favorite bet on Wednesday’s slate.

Pistons (7-28) at Hornets (19-19)

Karpuc’s Best Bet: Hornets -9.5

I’ve been betting against the Pistons all season long and have generally picked on their lack of talent. They’re one of the few teams in the league with more G-League talent than NBA caliber talent. Therefore, on NBA slates, the first name I look for is Detroit’s.  

The model is listing the Hornets (-9.5) as a one-star bet, which doesn’t indicate there’s much value, but there are four trends that I found on the Pistons-Hornets game page that made me pull the trigger.

The Hornets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games and under coach James Borrego, the Hornets are 48-28 ATS after two or more consecutive losses, 45-26 ATS against teams that average less than 108 points per game and 40-23 ATS against teams that get outscored by their opponents by 3+ points per game. 

Because I was already on this bet, the trends above validated my mindset. 

Knock on wood, but the Hornets are one of the few teams to not currently have important players in COVID protocols while the Pistons will be without Jerami Grant, Isaiah Stewart, Frank Jackson and Kelly Olynyk once again. But what really drew me to this bet was how explosive Charlotte’s offense is in direct comparison to Detroit’s lack of production on that end of the court. 

The Hornets average 114.9 points (2nd in NBA), 26.8 assists (3rd) and own an elite 112.4 Offensive Rating (3rd) while the Pistons average 101.1 points (29th) on 21.7 assists (28th) and have a 101.3 Offensive Rating (29th) this season. While Charlotte is one of the worst defensive teams in the league, so is Detroit, and the Hornets own such a gigantic advantage on the offensive end. LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier and company should have their way and be able to do whatever they want.

Further, the Pistons own a -8.9 average point differential (29th) and have essentially been miserable all year long, as their 7-28 overall record indicates. In my opinion, the Hornets should be 12-13 point favorites in this spot. BetQL projects the Hornets to win this game 112-102, but I wouldn’t be shocked at a complete blowout for the home team.

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