2023-2024 NBA Simulation: Boston Celtics

BetQL’s NBA Simulations

Before each NBA season, our model simulates every game of the year 10,000 times and reveals its results with the goal of identifying the most valuable futures. Now that the regular season schedule is out and most offseason moves are presumably over, we ran the simulations and there were some surprising outputs. Let’s take a look at the regular season win total for the Boston Celtics and find out if you should bet over or under!

Celtics Over 53.5 Regular Season Wins (-135, Caesars)   

After going 57-25 in last year’s regular season, the Boston Celtics’ campaign ended in a disappointing Game 7 loss to the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals. As a result, President of Basketball Operations Brad Stevens decided to make a splashy move in the offseason, trading away veteran team leader and defensive stalwart Marcus Smart and adding lanky big man Kristaps Porzingis, who had an awesome season for the Washington Wizards.

The team also selected Alabama forward Jordan Walsh in the NBA Draft and signed veterans Oshae Brissett and Dalano Banton in free agency. Also notably, star wing Jaylen Brown signed a supermax extension that will keep him in Boston moving forward while Grant Williams was traded away to the Mavericks.

After the moves, I would expect the starting five to look like this: PG Derrick White, SG Jaylen Brown, SF Jayson Tatum, PF Kristaps Porzingis and C Al Horford.

I then expect reigning Sixth Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon to be the first man off the bench, joined by Robert Williams III, Brissett, Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard. Banton, Walsh, JD Davison and Luke Kornet will be other depth options. All in all, this is an elite core that should continue to operate at an elite level, just like last season when the Celtics ranked 2nd in Offensive Rating, 2nd in Defensive Rating and 1st in Net Rating. 

Signing Porzingis was a fantastic move and he will give Boston a much-desired new look on both ends of the floor. Now second-year head coach Joe Mazzulla will be able to go to a very lengthy lineup if he chooses, which could come in handy against top Eastern Conference foes like Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks and Joel Embiid and the Sixers.

Not only that, but all five starters will be able to stretch the floor offensively, which will make that unit extremely difficult to defend. As soon as the defense collapses on anyone driving into the lane, there will be a reliable open shooter on the perimeter and if nobody helps, high-percentage looks around the rim will be available.

BetQL is projecting Boston to go 57-25 and tie their regular-season record from last season.

Luckily for them, their schedule will be working in their favor. The C’s will host five back-to-backs at home, more than the last three seasons combined (four). They also have a homestand that will last almost half a month, spanning from late January to mid February. Their longest road trip will last six games and their furthest destination west during that span will be New Orleans. Not only that, but Boston will play 16 games against opponents that are on the second half of a back-to-back and will play 11 back-to-backs themselves.

You can grab over 53.5 regular season wins at -135 at Caesars or even opt to get over 54.5 at around even odds elsewhere right now! I wouldn’t be shocked if this team wins 60 regular season contests.

BetQL Projection: 57-25