2021 NBA Draft: How to Bet the Top 4 Picks
Will Jalen Suggs go No. 4, or will Scottie Barnes crash the party?
Happy NBA Draft Day, with what is sure to be one that is full of surprises.
The top 3 picks are all but set at this point, with all reports signaling that the Pistons will select Cade Cunningham with the No. 1 pick, followed by the Rockets picking Jalen Green, and the Cavaliers taking Evan Mobley third.
So, what happens at No. 4?
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By most accounts, the Toronto Raptors will select Jalen Suggs, guard out of Gonzaga, and find their successor at point guard to Kyle Lowry. However, there appears to be some doubt starting to trickle out in the media around the pick, with Toronto looking to either move the pick or that they have looked at other top 10 prospects.
That brings me to a Draft Day bet I made, which is centered around Scottie Barnes being the No. 4 pick.
Full disclosure: I bet this on Tuesday at a bigger number, but I still see value on the top four picks being: Cunningham, Green, Mobley, Barnes, which is available at PointsBet at +450.
+450 translates to 18%. I see it more likely than that and would play it down to +400.
With the top three picks all but locked in, I’ll take the boosted odds on Barnes being the fourth pick.
Here’s my thinking.
Suggs does make sense as the fit is great for Toronto to be back in the playoff mix, but Barnes presents a unique ceiling, standing 6’8” in shoes and a near 7’3” wingspan. He played as a lead ball handler in a democratic Florida State system and is more than capable at defending all positions on the floor.
Based on Toronto draft picks over the past several years, Barnes fits the mold with unique measurables and able to switch all positions on the defensive end. Barnes turns 20 this weekend, he's young and raw and can thrive in the Raptors player development system.
Further, with nearly all mock drafts linking the Orlando Magic to Barnes at pick No. 5, if a team desires the FSU product, they may trade with the Raptors to get ahead of Orlando and pick him.
The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor noted in his Thursday morning mock that Oklahoma City has been talking to teams about moving up, with Barnes potentially being a target.
While Suggs has been mocked to the Raptors, many mock drafts have noted that it’s not a lock, but the most likely scenario. There are avenues to Barnes getting inside the top four and this price is still underselling it.
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