BetQL Simulation Model's Best Bets For Messi's First Inter Miami Match

THE MESSI EFFECT IN MIAMI

Excitement is at an all-time high as Inter Miami, led by the legendary Lionel Messi, is set to take on Cruz Azul in a highly anticipated Leagues Cup clash. The match is scheduled for Friday at 8 p.m. ET, and it will be held at Inter Miami's home pitch in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Fans around the world can catch the action on Apple TV with an MLS Season Pass and on Univision.

Inter Miami, with their newfound "Messi Effect," has been on a meteoric rise, both in terms of social media following and ticket sales since the announcement of Messi's arrival. The Argentine superstar, a seven-time Ballon d'Or winner, has had an illustrious career, securing four Champions League titles and leading Argentina to World Cup glory in 2022. Now, the spotlight is on him to transform a team that finished last in the 2022 MLS season.

The Leagues Cup, an annual competition between MLS and Liga MX teams, is in its third edition this year. All teams from both leagues are participating, and the group stage commences on July 21 and runs through July 31, with fifteen groups of three teams each.

Inter Miami finds themselves in a tough group alongside the reigning Leagues Cup champions, Cruz Azul, and Atlanta United FC, who currently stand seventh in the MLS Eastern Conference. Cruz Azul's past success and Atlanta United's respectable position in the standings make this a challenging group for Miami to navigate.

BetMGM Sportsbook Insights: Inter Miami-Cruz Azul

Most bet props

• 79% of bets, 89% of money is on Over 2.5 (-120)
• 99% of bets, 99% of money on Lionel Messi to score anytime goal (+115)
• 99% of bets, 99% of money on Lionel Messi to score 1st goal (+350)

BETQL SIMULATION DATA

BetQL's 10,000 simulations for this match give Inter Miami an edge, especially if Messi starts. With him in the lineup, Inter Miami is projected to have a 67.3% chance of winning, while Cruz Azul trails at 14.2%. The probability of a draw stands at 18.5%. Moreover, if Messi starts, he is expected to have a significant impact, with a 61% chance of finding the back of the net and an impressive projection of 0.93 goals.

However, if Messi doesn't start, Inter Miami's chances are still favorable, with a 60.7% likelihood of victory. Cruz Azul's chances improve slightly to 17.1%, and the draw stands at 22.2%. While Messi's presence undoubtedly boosts Miami's attacking prowess, they still have a capable team even without him on the pitch.

BetMGM lists Inter Miami with +100 odds to win in regular time. Cruz Azul follows with +230 odds, and a draw has +250 odds. At FanDuel, there's a solid value with +110 odds on Messi scoring.

BetQL's simulations also predict goal-scoring probabilities. If Messi starts, Inter Miami is projected to score 2.6 goals, while Cruz Azul is projected to score 1.15 goals. The likelihood of over 2.5 total goals is 69.1%, while under 2.5 goals stands at 30.9%. If Messi doesn't start, Inter Miami is still expected to net 2.3 goals, and Cruz Azul is projected to score 1.2 goals.

This clash between Inter Miami and Cruz Azul promises to be a thrilling contest, as both teams boast identical records and goal differences in their respective regular seasons (14 wins, 6 draws, 14 losses, 47 goals scored, 56 goals conceded). With Messi in the spotlight, all eyes will be on the maestro to see if he can lead Miami to a victorious start in the Leagues Cup and we're projecting that exact outcome.

Check out our simulation data below, including shots, shots on goal, goals and goal chances for notable players, including Messi.