World Series Game 1 Picks and Props: Dodgers vs. Yankees

The World Series finally gets underway tonight, nearly a week after either team has taken the field. This is either the championship that you have been wanting to see all year, or it is the one that you dreaded seeing all year. The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers were the two best offenses in baseball in 2024, and have been the favorites for a majority of the season to make it to this game. In the postseason, both teams maintained their status as top offenses, with the Dodgers owning a 122 wRC+ and the Yankees a 116 wRC+. The Yankees owned the better offense against right-handers by a slight margin, with a 120 wRC+ this year.

RHP Gerritt Cole will get the start for New York, but this isn’t the same guy that you think of when you hear his name. Cole’s overall pitching efficiency has dropped for three straight seasons, and he registered a 3.99 xFIP in 2024. That is his worst figure since 2016, eight years ago. This isn’t to say that he is a bad pitcher, as he can still be an effective arm, but he has not been that dominant ace that he was three years ago. This Dodgers lineup is very potent and finally much healthier than earlier in the season. Freddie Freeman is not 100%, which will help for sure, but this is still a dangerous lineup. The Yankees can afford to be more aggressive with their bullpen here, so I’d bet Cole under 15.5 outs.

On the other side, RHP Jack Flaherty will start Game 1 for Los Angeles. While his season-long numbers are fantastic, with a 3.00 xERA and 3.53 xFIP, I believe that fatigue started to set in for him last month. He was awful in his final two starts of the regular season, which was due to a noticeable drop in his velocity. Believe it or not, even just a one or two mph drop is extremely significant and has a huge effect on a pitcher's success. This is the most innings that Flaherty has ever pitched in a season, and his arm might be getting a bit weary. He will be off of a week of rest, so I expect his velocity to be there early, but could start to dip as the game moves along. I think there will be a lot of live betting opportunities on Flaherty, and I’d look to bet some of his unders after he turns over the Yankees order once.

Defensively, these teams are pretty similar. Los Angeles is better in terms of DRS, ranking 3rd in MLB compared to New York, which ranked 12th. However, OAA preferred the Yankees, ranking them 11th compared to 18th for the Dodgers. Base running numbers prefer the Dodgers a bit, as the Yankees were the worst and slowest team in the league in terms of BsR.

The bullpens will be key in this series, and I would give the Yankees the slight edge. This has a lot to do with usage rate, and the Dodgers have used their pen far more than the Yankees have. In fact, 59% of L.A.’s postseason innings have been pitched by their relievers, compared to just 43% for New York’s bullpen. This is because the Yankees have a huge advantage when it comes to overall starting pitching, as after Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, it gets really cloudy for the Dodgers. In terms of season long numbers, New York also had the advantage in the bullpen, ranking 11th in xFIP compared to the Dodgers’ 23rd ranking.

Taking everything into account, I think the Dodgers will need to take the early games of this series before their giant weakness in starting pitching will start to show. I am not a huge fan of either of these starters as they are right now, and would bet the over 8.5 at plus money. Putting on the proverbial weather cap, temperatures are expected to be almost perfect, 78 degrees at first pitch with wind blowing out at around five mph. I think one of the best ways to bet this game is live after each starter has gone through the order once.

Best Bets: Cole Under 15.5, Flaherty Unders Live (Outs, Strikeouts), Over 8.5, Fade the starters after first time through the order live.

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