How You Should Approach The Yankees Before The Trade Deadline

The Yankees were one of the best teams in MLB through the first three months of the season. As of June 13, they had just wrapped a four-game series with the Royals and had a 49-22 record. From then on, they went just 9-18 to close out the first half of the season and New York's six games post-All-Star break hasn't exactly resulted in the bounce back it needed. The Yankees are just 2-4 and are coming off two straight losses to their crosstown rival, the Mets, who outscored them 15-5. The Mets also won two previous games against the Yankees, sweeping the Subway Series for the first time since 2013.

Despite getting embarrassed at home, Yankees manager Aaron Boone still feels confident that his team is capable of returning to its early-season form.

"We got to play better, OK?" Boone said, per ESPN. "We have it right in front of us. We're a really good team that has played s---ty of late. We need to be better.

"I'm not going to define stretch, this or that. We got to go win, right? And we're right there.”

He’s not completely wrong. The Yankees are just 1.5 games back of the AL-East-leading Orioles and 2.5 games back of the AL-leading Guardians. If the regular season ended today, New York would earn the first wild card spot in the American League.

With 58 games left in the season, does this recent slump present value when it comes to backing the Yankees in the futures market? Or should you stay away from them completely? 

The Yankees have the second shortest odds to win the AL East at +105 and the AL at +260, sitting behind the O’s in both categories. Baltimore is -120 to win the division and +275 to win the AL. New York also has the fourth shortest odds to win the World Series at +700 with the Dodgers (+333), Phillies (+375) and Orioles (+650) all ahead of them.

While it certainly isn’t out of contention by any means despite such a terrible stretch, I still don’t have the confidence that the organization can turn things around enough to compete for the pennant or World Series, especially considering there isn’t a ton of value in those odds. 

The Yankees have won consecutive games just once since June 14th with only one series win over that span. They should be buyers at the trade deadline but there are a few different holes that they need to fill. 

Adding an infielder is a priority but so is bringing in another relief pitcher. Yankees infielders have been terrible at the plate all season with a collective 87 wRC+, which is tied for the sixth-lowest mark in the league. Outside of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, this team’s offense has been fairly non-existent over the last month. 

The question, however, remains whether or not New York has enough prospects to consolidate and trade for top-tier talent. Baltimore is much more well positioned to make an impactful trade from someone like Tarik Skubal or Garrett Crochet. If the O’s improve that significantly at the deadline, I don’t see the Yankees being able to get passed them.  

In terms of its remaining strength of schedule, New York ranks in the bottom half of the league. It only plays the Orioles, Guardians and Phillies three more times each, but it has seven games left against the Red Sox, which will be a tough series. That said, they’ll also have serval soft series against the White Sox, Angels, A’s and Rockies. 

The Yankees are +1400 to miss the playoffs altogether at BetMGM. If I had to place a bet right now, this is the one I would take because of the value it presents for a struggling team.