BetQL's Staff Picks To Win 2022 Cy Young Award

Odds in this article are subject to change. Check the latest NL Cy Young odds here.

Dan Karpuc: Corbin Burnes, Brewers (+800, BetMGM)

Most sportsbooks have Burnes, the 2021 NL Cy Young award winner, listed behind the Mets' Jacob deGrom (+350) and his new teammate Max Scherzer (+700), but Burnes’ 2021 numbers make a stats nerd like me smile. Especially after deGrom went down with an injury last season, Corbin Burnes put up numbers that validated his NL Cy Young win.

Per FanGraphs, his 1.98 xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) led all qualified MLB starters by a huge amount; the next-best mark was Gerrit Cole at 3.01. That’s insane. His 1.94 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 36.7% strikeout rate also led all qualified starters, while his 3.7% Walk Rate ranked second and 0.46 HR/9 ranked fourth. Just 28.4% of batted balls against Burnes qualified as “hard hits” and 50.3% of them were ground balls, which limited the potential damage against him.

Sure, deGrom and Scherzer are also solid bets, but I’m chasing Burnes’ upside and the fact that he utterly embarrassed hitters as the most consistent starter in the league last year.

Lucy Burdge: Max Scherzer, Mets (+800, DraftKings)

Scherzer has won this award three times and finished third in voting last season, so he always has an excellent shot to take this honor. Scherzer had a record of 15-4 and a 2.46 ERA and 236 strikeouts last season between the Nationals and Dodgers, and went 7-0 with a 0.78 ERA and 79 Ks in 58 innings with L.A., while holding opposing hitters to a .150 average. I have no doubt this season in Queens will just be a continuation of last year's success.

Brad Pinkerton: Aaron Nola, Phillies (+1500, PointsBet)

As a Braves fan, I hate picking Nola here, but I also hate seeing him on the schedule because I know it's going to be a tough game for Atlanta. Nola's stats have the trademarks for of a future Cy Young winner. He's had at least 32 starts in each of the last three full MLB seasons (ignoring 2020) and he topped 200 innings in two of those three seasons, so he's a workhorse who can rack up stats.

His 11.1 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 last season were both elite, a combo typically seen in Cy Young winners; only Scherzer (11.8 K/9, 1.81 BB/9) and Burnes (12.6 K/9, 1.8 BB/9) were better than Nola in both categories last season among all MLB starters with at least 100 innings.

Last year's 4.63 ERA seems like an unlucky fluke when you consider his 3.37 xERA, FIP & xFIP were all in line with Nola's career marks, while his BABIP was unusually high and both his GB% and LOB% were unusually low. Return to norms there should have Nola closer to an ERA around 3.00 and in the Cy Young hunt in 2022 with great value at these odds.

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