MLB Playoffs: Rays vs. Guardians AL Wild-Card Prediction

Rays vs. Guardians Preview

The 2022 MLB postseason officially gets underway on Friday with the Cleveland Guardians and the Tampa Bay Rays kicking things off with the first game of the wild-card round. The Guardians were the surprise winner of the AL Central and are back in the postseason for the fifth time in seven years, but are still searching for their first series win since the 2016 ALCS. The Rays, meanwhile, are in the playoffs for a fourth straight season and are hoping to return to the World Series for the second time in three years. The Guardians are hosting the series after winning four of six head-to-head games with the Rays this year and are slight favorites with a -120 moneyline (best price at BetMGM) while Tampa’s moneyline is around +108 (best price at FanDuel).

Tampa Bay’s Pitching

The Rays had the second-best rotation ERA in the American League this year and they’ll be hoping that pitching can carry them through the playoffs. Not surprisingly, Shane McClanahan is the choice for Game 1. The lefty went 12-8 with a 2.54 ERA in his 28 starts this year. However, he did get roughed up by Cleveland in late July. He also missed half of September with a shoulder impingement and struggled down the stretch, allowing 11 runs over his final 14 innings. In fairness, he faced the Astros twice and the Blue Jays once in his final three starts of the season, contributing to his poor performance.

After McClanahan starts Game 1, the Rays will send Tyler Glasnow to the mound in Game 2. Glasnow only returned for two starts late in the year after missing most of the season following Tommy John surgery, but he looked good enough in those two starts that the Rays will roll the dice on him. If there’s a Game 3, the Rays have yet to make up their mind. Drew Rasmussen is a right-handed option who posted a 2.84 ERA this year, while Jeffrey Springs is an option from the left side who pitched to a 2.46 ERA in 2022. Corey Kluber is also an option to face his former team and boasts the most postseason experience on Tampa’s staff, although he is also well past his prime.

Cleveland’s Pitching

The Guardians have been led by their pitching all season and have their three starters locked and loaded for the wild-card round. Former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber will start Game 1, followed by Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill in Games 2 and 3, respectively. Bieber was the obvious option for Game 1, as he was 13-8 with a 2.88 ERA over 31 starts this year. However, he allowed seven runs over 4.2 innings in his only career postseason start two years ago. And even though the Guardians have won five of his last six starts, the only loss came against Tampa.

McKenzie will get the nod in Game 2 after a breakout season, going 11-11 with a 2.96 ERA. He did some of his best work during the second half of the season. That includes a start against the Rays in late September in which he allowed one run on three hits over six innings. Finally, Quantrill is in excellent form for the Guardians heading into the postseason. Since the All-Star break, he’s 9-0 with a 2.94 ERA over 15 starts. Perhaps more importantly, the Guardians have won 16 of the last 17 games that he’s started.

Betting Trends

The Rays better hope that the cliché of wiping the slate clean ahead of the postseason is true. Tampa lost five in a row to finish the regular season, scoring just eight runs in those five games. The Rays were also 2-9 over their final 11 games, including losing two out of three to the Guardians. They are also 5-12 on the road since the start of September, making the Rays just 35-46 (.432) on the road this year. Of course, the Guardians only had a 46-35 (.568) home record this year, which was middle of the pack.

Meanwhile, the Rays could have second thoughts about starting a second lefty after McClanahan in this series. The Guardians were the seventh-best team against southpaws this year, going 29-17 (.630). As for the Rays, they will face three right-handed starters in this series but were a modest 64-60 (.516) against righties this year.

Rays vs. Guardians Prediction

The Rays have not played well down the stretch and that could continue into the postseason. Tampa is also taking a little bit of a risk starting McClanahan, who missed time in September, and Glasnow, who just returned from Tommy John. On the other side, Cleveland’s rotation is lined up and red-hot, especially Quantrill, who could pitch the deciding game, if necessary. However, with Tampa’s recent struggles on the road, the Guardians are poised to sweep this series before it gets to Game 3.

Pick: Guardians win series, 2-0.

• Guardians to win series -120 at BetMGM (Bet this risk-free up to $1,250 at BetMGM!)
• Guardians to win series 2-0 exactly +225 at DraftKings (Get $200 in free bets at DraftKings with the offer below!)
  

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