MLB Playoffs: Mariners vs. Blue Jays AL Wild-Card Prediction

Mariners vs. Blue Jays Preview

For the first time since 2001, the Seattle Mariners are back in the postseason. Their return will come in the wild-card round against the Toronto Blue Jays, who are making their fourth postseason appearance in the last eight years. Seattle won five of the seven head-to-head games between these teams in 2022, although the Blue Jays remain favorites to win this series at home with a -160 moneyline (best price at Caesars), while Seattle’s moneyline is at +144 (best price at FanDuel).

Toronto’s Pitching

The Blue Jays head into wild-card weekend with some questions about their rotation. The only guarantee is that Alek Manoah will be the Game 1 starter. The 24-year-old had a breakout season in 2021, but took things to another level this year, going 16-7 with a 2.24 ERA over 31 starts. Naturally, he’ll be making his postseason debut when he faces the Mariners on Friday. Manoah will be doing so on the heels of a September in which he went 4-0 with a 0.88 ERA over six starts with a string of 15 straight scoreless innings.

Of course, the rest of Toronto’s rotation is a question mark, especially with Kevin Gausman leaving his final start of the regular season because of a cut on his finger. Gausman would be a lock to start a game in this series after going 12-10 with a 3.35 ERA this year, but he’s now questionable. The Blue Jays were already uncertain of who their third starter would be in this series, so the injury to Gausman is even more worrisome. Jose Berrios might be next in line, although he finished the year with a 5.23 ERA while posting a 5.61 ERA in September. Ross Stripling and Yusei Kikuchi are also options with Stripling going 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA in 11 starts after the all-star break and Kikuchi being Toronto’s only left-handed option despite an uneven season.

Seattle’s Pitching

After trading for Luis Castillo in July and signing him to an extension, he will be Seattle’s starter when the Mariners return to the postseason on Friday. Since the trade, Castillo is 4-2 with a 3.17 ERA. He also made a postseason start with the Reds two years ago, so this won’t be his first time pitching in the playoffs. The rest of the Seattle rotation for this series is yet to be settled, although there are plenty of options.

Reigning Cy Young winner Robbie Ray, who won the award with Toronto last year, is an obvious candidate. The lefty was 12-12 with a 3.71 ERA this year, although he lost his last two starts of the regular season, including a concerning performance against the A’s. That makes Logan Gilbert and George Kirby serious contenders to also start a game during this series. While neither is known league-wide, both had excellent seasons. Gilbert led the Mariners with 13 wins and a 3.20 ERA. However, he allowed seven runs over 13 innings across his two starts against the Blue Jays this year. Kirby, meanwhile, is a former first-round pick who didn’t pitch in the big leagues before making 25 starts this year, going 8-5 with a 3.39 ERA.

Betting Trends

As mentioned, Seattle won the season series between these teams, although the Blue Jays won two of the three games in Toronto. While the Jays finished the year 47-34 (.580) at home, they were an abysmal 29-47 (.382) ATS as home favorites. Meanwhile, the Mariners had the fourth-best road record among American League teams at 44-37 (.543). They were also 47-34 (.580) ATS on the road in 2022.

On the pitching front, the Mariners starting Ray against his former team could be the right move. Toronto was the fourth-worst team in baseball this year against left-handed starters, going just 12-20 (.375). When the Mariners hosted the Blue Jays in July, Ray allowed one run on three hits over six innings against his old team. On the flip side, the Blue Jays were 80-50 (.615) when facing right-handed starters. That was the third-best record in baseball and the best among American League teams against right-handed starters.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays Prediction

With both teams facing uncertainty in their rotations, this series could be tough to call. However, it’s clear the Mariners have more viable options to take the mound whereas Toronto’s second-best starter has an injury that could impact his availability or effectiveness. Of course, the Blue Jays blow Seattle away in most offensive categories, leading the American League in OPS and scoring the second-most runs. But the postseason is about pitching, which is what is going to carry the Mariners to a surprising series win on the road.

Pick: Mariners win series, 2-1.

• Mariners to win series +144 at FanDuel (Make this your No Sweat Bet up to $1,000 at FanDuel!)
• Series Over 2.5 games -105 at BetMGM (Bet this risk-free up to $1,250 at BetMGM!)
• Mariners win series 2-1 exactly +330 at DraftKings (Bet this FREE with $200 in free bets at DraftKings!)

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