MLB Playoffs: Mariners vs. Astros ALDS Game 3 Odds, Prediction & Player Prop Bets

Picks and predictions from BetMGM for today's Mariners-Astros ALDS Game 3

Mariners vs. Astros ALDS Game 3 Odds & Prediction

The Houston Astros (-110) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-110) on Saturday with first pitch scheduled for 4:07 p.m. ET. The Astros are betting favorites with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155) and the Over/Under at 7 total runs. So far this season, the Astros are 108-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 86-80 ATS.

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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+12.20 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+11.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+11.50 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 away games (+10.55 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+9.00 Units / 20% ROI)

Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dylan Moore has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+11.65 Units / 97% ROI)
  • Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.50 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Luis Castillo has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+10.30 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Dylan Moore has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+9.70 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.65 Units / 46% ROI)

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Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 96 of their last 151 games (+29.60 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 92 of their last 162 games (+25.20 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 101 of their last 148 games (+21.80 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 80 of their last 145 games (+15.80 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 away games (+8.55 Units / 27% ROI)

Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 63 games at home (+17.45 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 98 games (+15.05 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 63 games (+13.45 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 60 games at home (+10.00 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 98 games (+5.25 Units / 4% ROI)

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 87-77 against the Run Line (+11.45 Units / 5.92% ROI).

  • 108-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.3 Units / 5.98% ROI
  • 61-93 when betting on the total runs Over for -40 Units / -22.27% ROI
  • 93-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +25.2 Units / 13.87% ROI

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 86-80 against the Run Line (-6.05 Units / -2.77% ROI).

  • 92-74 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.85 Units / 2.21% ROI
  • 77-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.8 Units / -5.92% ROI
  • 81-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.85 Units / -1.55% ROI

Lance McCullers Jr.: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (18/157) against Lance McCullers with runners in scoring position since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 191 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (53/357) against Lance McCullers since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 191 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Lance McCullers has thrown off-speed pitches 80% of the time (1,403/1,761) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total NonFB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.

Lance McCullers has walked 61 of 431 left-handed batters (14%) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.

George Kirby: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .381 (67 GB hits out of 176 GBs) against George Kirby this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .233 — 0 Percentile.

George Kirby has allowed a BABIP of .387 against right-handed batters this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .295 — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .312 (65-for-208) against George Kirby’s non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .226 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of 53% (34/64) against George Kirby on the first pitch of at-bats — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.

The Astros are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Astros are 47-5 (.904) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.

The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Mariners are 69-2 (.972) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Mariners are 69-1 (.986) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Mariners are 46-37 (.554) on the road this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .468.

The Mariners are 47-10 (.825) when scoring in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

Astros Hitting Stats & Trends

Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,591 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Astros hitters have just 321 strikeouts in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends

Mariners hitters are slugging just .167 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

The Mariners are batting just .218 at home since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Mariners are batting just .310 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.

The Mariners are batting just .219 at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Astros Pitching Stats & Trends

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% this month (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 392.8 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3

Opponents have a miss rate of 34% against Astros pitchers this month (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 13% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (15 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

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